Battle at the 18-day SMA

In line with our theme for this wave of getting ready for a real mess, ES price action today was eclipsed by, well, The Eclipse. For those who could see totality, it was spectacular and looked like the "real deal". For those who couldn't, they will have to wonder for another twenty years to get the chance to satisfy their curiosity (2044). For those who watched price action, it was whippy, back-and-forth algo trade on both sides of the 18-day moving average, the "line in the sand", as the daily chart of the ES futures shows, below.

Another way to describe price action today, however, is that it was the second inside day following the double-close key reversal two days ago. By not closing above the high of that bar today, a continuation lower at least has even odds - a trap for the bears was not sprung today, but there is no guarantee.

Price still has not touched the lower daily band and over the last two days gave the impression of coiling and coiling and coiling. So, a breakout in either direction might last a bit. Until we see such, it is likely to be sloppy - even though downside counts remain possible.

Have a good start to the evening,

TraderJoe