Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Let's Concentrate on Form

Here is the ES 4-Hr chart in close-only line form. For the moment, let's concentrate on some elements of the chart form. First, as of the cash close, there is a new three-touch trend line (dotted) up from the minute ((a)) wave low. There is also a potential new (temporary) declining parallel down from the recent minute ((b)) wave high.


The wave labels of a/i and b/ii should be currently read as being identically equivalent until some length in the waves (and a possible fourth & fifth wave) can separate the counts. 

Today, we counted a likely leading diagonal down. It may have converted to an impulse by the end of the session. Tomorrow could back-and-fill, or it could just as easily gap lower into a third wave of either a c wave or of a wave iii. Time will tell.

Again, there is no reason price could not go directly down and break the low of the minute ((a)) wave in order to form part of the minute ((c)) wave down.

If price begins to back-and-fill the upper declining parallel would likely need to be respected or an impulse lower would be questionable.

Have a good start to the evening,

TraderJoe

15 comments:

  1. If the triangle pans out, we would be in (b) and the .786 retrace of (a) is at some horizontal support.

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  2. Daily VIX 'currently' losing embedded status.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/rukDtYe3/

    Daily US Dollar triangle may have expanded once.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/91B2GgT9/

    TJ

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  3. ES 30-min up +100 pts on reduced CPI report; 0.4% versus 0.6% expected. Dow futures (YM) have a new recovery and count likely has to be reset.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Should we not wait for the cash to open.
      Remembering "your rabbit out of hat" post

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    2. ES futures crossed the overlap of 3777 and it got invalidated on " rabbit out of hat" post.

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  4. YM 4-Hr: the DOW futures have an interesting pattern, BUT, requires a low lower than the overnight futures low to activate it. 'Could be' an ending diagonal, but there is no proof the wave is over to the upside.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/O8oL2YPd/

    TJ

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  5. Thanks TJ. Its getting very confusing with Dow and Es fut charts to interpret.

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  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    Replies
    1. Diagonal from 3502 has problems. Maybe this is b of and x wave. I'm gonna take a time out. Have a great weekend all.

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  7. Racking my brains.
    Just don't understand this ((b)) wave
    And how to confirm when it ends...

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  8. I saw a wave count behind a paywall that suggested the alternate that if the high of 11/1 is exceeded, yesterday's low would be an X wave of a double zigzag, of which today's up wave MAY be the final wave c up.

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  9. we're at the 18ma weekly and the daily upper BB and the 100ma, doubtful it goes much farther

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  10. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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