U.S. equity prices as measured by the SPY cash (30min) index in the chart below, gapped down, broke the dashed interim trend line previously shown, then back tested that trend line and fell off a bit again. To begin to make a third wave down, the back-test would need to fail, and the down (red) fractal shown on the chart would need to be broken lower.
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| SPY Cash - 30 min - Expanding Pattern Currently |
Today's gap (red circle) was not filled as of this time. It's hard to make more of the price movement than what it is, so far.
Have a good start to your evening and your holiday week.
TraderJoe
for the expanding diagonal, should the tentative iv wave label be moved since circle c hasn't started yet? should the labeled 3 wave move up be extended so that instead of iv, the entire move to the labeled circle c, is circle a and we are currently in circle b?
ReplyDelete... Best alternate is a triangle 📐 ((b)) and ((c)) of iv to come. But, there is no reason to invoke it as of this time. The down count 'can' be counted in nested form, but only if it holds. TJ.
DeleteThanks TJ, Yesterday gap filled.
DeleteHello Tj,
ReplyDeleteMade this vix chart.
Looks like bottoming, thought will share
https://linksharing.samsungcloud.com/nLwv4rY6AA3j
gold after wedging
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/ybhPp0v
into the monthly channel.
https://imgur.com/wMLDHvt
Looks like some impulse and working on retrace.
https://imgur.com/2ABztuU
Here is the triangle idea for the SPY. Not sure it will work; caution advised ahead of FED minutes and into the lighter holiday volume.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/P0ryLRMU/
TJ
DXY with the bear pennant on the daily timeframe
ReplyDeletewave iv invalidation level breached
ReplyDeletetriangle looks right, I'm expecting a move down after this pump. DJT was weak today and VIX got under the daily BB and the weekly 200 and 100 ma (together) - no doubt in my mind they will try to recapture those MA's by Friday. Thanks for the updates a always!
ReplyDeleteLooks to me like $INDU will not make a new low on the next decline. Could be a classic H&S bottom. https://schrts.co/YurWRIBG
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-hr: this is a 'possibility', but the trade is holiday light, flaky, and very 'news-y". It would be the "deep retrace" of a completed diagonal down. The FED minutes are still to go today.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5N2FShM5/
So, the alt count is that "((b))" is still in progress.
TJ
..again, nothing doing to the down side until/unless the dotted up trend line shown is broken, back-tested, and the back-test fails. TJ.
DeleteAwesome count invalidation by less than a point in the SPY. And surprising the levels reached by the Dow.
DeleteThere is a nice 4hr hammer on gold after what looks to be a running triangle on the 15min.
ReplyDeleteAs far as ES, from 3502 still dying in the channel and turning to the right.
DeleteSomebody has to be the dreamer.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/nicxaZU
Very nice waves at the top in 1 minute chart. ED as 5th and 5 waves down with a micro LD in front.
ReplyDeleteSPY peeking below the 61.8 retrace of the 8/16 wave high.
ReplyDeleteSPY 60-min: the prior high has been exceeded. Can still be in the minute ((b)) wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GbsbjsjS/
TJ
From (CNBC)
ReplyDelete"FEDERAL RESERVE
Fed officials see smaller rate hikes coming ‘soon,’ minutes show"
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/23/fed-minutes-november-2022.html
TJ
SPY 5-min: whippy, whippy.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Rpl1t23I/
TJ
Happy Thanksgiving to all, loos like Friday we'll hit the 200ma and then let's see if the turkey can keep flying 🦃
ReplyDeleteLet's see...https://www.mediafire.com/view/8uuurrb6fjueogu/Capture.PNG/file
ReplyDeleteTJ, Very thankful for all the education you have provided me over the years!
ReplyDeleteHappy Thanksgiving to you and your family!
..and thanks for your contributions and support! TJ
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ