The price structure could very well be "short-a, long-c; long-a, short-c" for (w)-(x)-(y) overall in the SPY hourly chart. The close-only chart is shown below to concentrate on form and timing. Let's see if any confirmation occurs.
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I still want to see price trade below the lower channel boundary, back-test it, and fail with a lower low. The items in favor of confirmation are that the highest high is not on or above the upper channel boundary which is a sign of momentum loss, the lower Elliott Wave Oscillator, and the possible truncation high.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe
Hi TJ - I just learned that Avi Gilburt (well followed EW analyst) is presenting for 30 minutes Wed 4:30PM EST. The title is 'Are we about to start a 10 year bear market'. I tried his service years ago and no longer a member. I found his counts to have degree violations and not as disciplined. He frequently has bullish and bearish alternatives which are difficult to time/trade (which is the purpose of his service). That said, I'm not the expert and he does have many fans. Let me know if you want to listen in as I think you can poke some holes in his EW logic.
ReplyDeleteIn 30-minutes it is difficult to discuss or rebut anything in depth. Thx. but I'll pass. TJ.
DeleteES stopped so far at .786 retrace. These waves are keeping me on triangle watch. We would just have completed the d.
ReplyDeletesorry, completed the c.
Delete4hr rsi on futures is near previous lows and qqq hit it's 18ma on daily. My guess is Powell will appear dovish tomorrow
DeleteAs far as I can tell, the down wave in a triangle should not be able to be counted like a simple impulse (x1 style). I could be wrong because of the messy top, but the triangle would be my alternate at this point, and a retrace certainly could happen.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7wfg61yP/
TJ
Ughhh I'm so bad at counting triangles!
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: so far, it's just a crushing grind, and 'might turn into' a flat or expanded flat. These waves typically don't make for good trading, until/unless there is a ((C)) wave, up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VtRpeUrt/
TJ
ES 30-min: looks like the futures made it down to the 90% level +/- a tick. But these ((B)) waves can get more complicated or go through the lows. So, be awares.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/V0StjFCC/
TJ
SPY 5-min: so far, they are just garbage waves - thrashing around.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QDZQ3ik3/
Reminder that FED Chair Powell is scheduled to speak at 1:30 pm ET (12:30 PM CT).
TJ
SPY 5-min: gappy third wave down of (C) apparently, takes SPY down to the 90% level, to make a flat legal: can still get more complicated and make an expanded flat. Structure proves the (A) wave was a 'leading diagonal' lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4HJS40L2/
..just look at how compressed that (A) wave was. Lordi-a-merci.
TJ
Using a 4hr ES chart, I have us on the lower channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/P0WtUP5
DeleteHeld the channel that may have been b of y to stay smaller in time than x and smaller in total width of the correction.
I think triangle idea is out and now we see what it does with mid channel line and down sloping 2-4 line of the expanding diagonal count.
DeleteGold
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/6rs7Zbw
Markets have their own count.
ReplyDeleteYes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus!
ReplyDeleteMaybe this is iii of 5 (of B). With 1 > 3 > 5. Peak around 4175. Maybe. :>)
ReplyDelete"more ground to cover" from "a ways to go" good for 130 ES points. My worst subject.
ReplyDeleteMy English teacher in high school had low expectations from me and I delivered.
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ