The market as measured by the ES futures was initially higher overnight, then lower, until the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and press conference. They raised rates by the expected +0.75%, and then gave the usual razzle-dazzle about the uncertain course ahead. When we counted three-down waves only until this afternoon, we suspected something was up. And prices popped on comments about considering how high rates will have been, and the lagged effects by which monetary policy occurs. As far as we can tell, that spike is the end of the minute ((b)) wave up. Under the ES 2-hour chart, below, we will offer five points of evidence in favor of this view.
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The evidence that we ask you to consider is the following.
Evidence
- We are specifically showing where we can count five non-overlapping wave sequences, up.
- We note the rough time equality of each wave sequence (w), (x), (y) with the brown boxes.
- We note the MACD is now below the zero line again.
- We note the speed of today's declining wave, which Neely likes to see to begin a new trend.
- We note the up wave today was to the 78% level, within Neely's truncation guidelines.
We have often noted that the (z) wave in a triple zigzag is the one most prone to truncation and that would fit the scenario to a "t". We have tried other scenarios, including diagonals, but the wave lengths from last night's high simply do not match them.
If the count is correct, we would expect today's high to hold. Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Aha! Over-looked possible truncation. Thanks!
ReplyDeletewelcome.. TJ
DeleteAmazing EW analysis. C. Ptolemy would be proud of you!
ReplyDeletehttps://galileoandeinstein.phys.virginia.edu/more_stuff/Applets/PtolemyInner/ptolemys_model_inner_planets.html
But it fits the data. And the MACD delineates the waves very well.
Not quite sure how you find time to day trade given all the charting and commentary you provide. But it is much appreciated!
Thanks ET, long time lurker here. For years I have been following and learning, so it's time for me to also say thank you for your selfless disseminating of knowledge. And well done for keeping at bay those who come here expecting day-trading advice :-)
ReplyDeletethx! TJ
DeleteSince the truncated high, is that an expanding diagonal down?
ReplyDeleteNo, I don't think so because the fourth wave is not longer in price than the second wave (even tho it overlaps). However, the ES 30-min futures can be counted like this ((5)) < ((3)) < ((1)).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/K4xWycpf/
TJ
Thx
DeleteSPY 5-min: with the payroll report tomorrow, I can't but wonder if someone isn't trying to slip us the triangle train-wreck prior to another pop - subject to the usual triangle invalidations.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7tzImzM0/
TJ
SPY 5-min: chart update
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/46G6odpS/
TJ
@ET Saw a rare expanding diagonal on NQ 1 mins as part of flat in wave 1.
ReplyDeleteRare thing I suppose ?
http://tos.mx/1pcI0rm
Flat in wave 2 and then the 3rd wave took off.
DeleteI believe a triangle as the sole structure for a second wave is impermissible in EWT. Am I wrong about that?
DeleteI was thinking triangle was over and it was forming as part of 3rd wave down.
DeleteSPY 5-min : triangle did invalidate going into the close. That 'most likely' means we had only three-up; could be an a-3 wave; and down wave might test the low or go below the low tomorrow.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YPuJDeoU/
TJ
'Could' also turn into another w-x-y where a-3 = 'w', and current down wave is only 'x'. Darn testy corrections. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ