As a follow-on to Tuesday's post (Oct 04), there are now about 150 candles on the SPY (cash) 2-Hr chart, as below.
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| SPY (Cash) - 2 Hr - Wave (iv) in Parallel |
There is no upward overlap to worry about. And since wave blue (ii) was likely a Flat wave, then wave blue (iv) could either be a sharp - which it is already - or a triangle. The triangle's purpose would be to take up more time in relationship to wave blue (iii).
The Elliott Wave Oscillator got to a bit higher than the +40% which is most typical as seen in daily waves. IF a triangle forms, the ultimate reading in the EWO would be at wave e of the triangle, and that reading would likely be much lower. The EWO is currently back below the zero line.
Have a good start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
I know the minimum retrace of the A wave for a regular flat is 90%. Is the an EW rule or guideline for a zig zag?
ReplyDeleteClearly, if the zigzag has a triangle or running triangle in it for the "b" wave, the retrace can be as little as 5 to 10% as all it is 'required' to do is overlap the prior "a" wave.
DeleteWhen "b" in the zigzag is not a triangle, then 38 - 78% is more common. Neely prefers the "b" wave of 'any' zigzag to be less than 62%. But, as long as the "a" wave is "truly" in five waves, anything up to 99+% is acceptable by the original 'rules'.
So - given the exceedingly wide range - what is an analyst to do? Hint: Remember those daily and intraday Bollinger Bands? And the 18-day & intraday SMA's? Shh.. don't tell anyone.
TJ
Thanks! You nailed my hidden query regarding possible confusion if 5 in A unclear. :)
DeleteSPX - highs-lows
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/bie7cyl7bimpdum/hi-lospx.PNG/file
The same study on the NYA (New York Composite Index) completely disagrees with the SPX assessment. (Try: !NEWHINYA-!NEWLONYA).
DeleteIt finds 1098 at the recent SEP lower low, vs 1091 at the June low. It also finds a 'lower high' and NOT a confirmation of the higher high as you cite in Aug.
At best, your study is inconclusive, and not one the majority are likely to follow. Is a turn getting due? Yes, probably as the put-call ratio is beginning to creep up, and there may also be a divergence on the (more widely followed) McClellan Oscillator.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ