As measured in the ES hourly futures, the up wave has been a dumpster fire of a wave count (as I suggested it probably would be). It has numerous downward overlaps, and a failure to go above the prior high yet. It still could. The best two options are these.
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| ES Futures - Hourly - Diagonal Failure Potential |
The first option, above, is the diagonal failure. The weakness of this count is that is doesn't yet appear in the cash market. It could. Perhaps such a wave is still part of the prior wave (iv), downward. It could also be a triple zigzag minute ((b)) wave, up.
The second count, above, is the "Don't rush me - I'm a diagonal count" and allows for a longer fourth wave. However, in this second count the fourth wave can not become longer in price length than the second wave or it will invalidate (shown). This wave - if it doesn't invalidate first - would then still have a chance to become either an ending diagonal or even a leading diagonal. Or it could be a triple zigzag contracting wave for the minute ((b)) wave.
First, let's see if new highs are made this morning, or if there is wave invalidation. MACD has returned to the zero line. Let's see if find support there and turns up (indicating a fourth wave) or if it keeps on falling.
Have a good start to the morning.
TraderJoe
It just does not know what to do with that channel in ((a)).
ReplyDeleteDumpster fire indeed!!
TJ, doesn't wave iv also need to be shorter in time than wave ii? Or is that just a guideline and not a requirement for contracting diagonals?
ReplyDeleteEWI won't commit to making that a 'rule'. But it is a common expectation. Hence, the 'dumpster fire' nature of what we're dealing with. TJ.
DeleteIt seems odd to fail.on the a wave, I would expect on c. So maybe not an a wave after all....
ReplyDeleteas I said above, it could be a 'c' wave that ended a flat fourth of (iv). TJ.
Deletethey are in a range, but i can see 5 down with an abc this morning. I guess tsla earnings will help decide what it is.
ReplyDeleteES daily - back to 18-day SMA. The line in the sand. TJ.
ReplyDeleteHere is a line chart of the ES 5-min down from the overnight high. It's another train wreck of overlapping structures. I don't think it's an expanding diagonal because there is a flat for the 'x' wave. Flats should not be part of diagonals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NtAa6ugY/
It is possible this compressed action is part of a larger triangle, either a (b) wave triangle for (a), (b), (c) of the minute ((b)) wave, OR part of a much larger fourth wave triangle (iv) which would still be part of the minute ((a)) wave down. (A real caveat to the later wave (iv) still of minute wave ((a)) is that the Dow can not be counted that way. This does 'feel like' a part of a 'B' wave.
TJ
SPY 30-min: price right now is in a compression pattern given by the descending channel and the rising dotted up trend line. A break of one or the other - and subsequent back test - would better help establish the day's movements.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Q9MAUakY/
TJ
SPY 30-min: here is the result. If price can get over the top, then 'possible' the upwards contracting diagonal can form. If, we head downwards, then likely still in some kind of triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/by03euR7/
TJ
SPY 30-min: now a modified channel (position), but same up trend line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VM179qsK/
TJ
SPY 5-min: there is now a case for an expanding diagonal from the high. The wave lengths are correct. At minimum, this suggests closely watching the morning high and the overnight lows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CuGMXwI7/
TJ
..and it may be a 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal. So it 'may' be leading. TJ.
DeleteSPY 30-min: dotted trend line now breaking. Possible triangle being formed.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wELyVA1g/
TJ
This dumpster fire is raging!
ReplyDeleteYep, it's just 'the battle for the 18-day SMA'.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Du6RwNeZ/
TJ
SPY 5-min: and with the lower low this hour, the diagonal extended additional wave to make a full-on impulse. Degrees are only to illustrate the point.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/a8Bhvt00/
IF this another 'a' wave down of a triangle, there could be a hefty 'b' wave bounce.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ