The market as measured by the ES futures has been playing an interesting game of chicken with the prior daily low shown in purple on the chart. The SPY cash does already have a lower low; the ES futures, as per the hourly chart, below, does not. Perhaps the minute ((a)) wave will finish with a lower low in the overnight.
Or, with the PPI and CPI reports over the next two days, perhaps it will finish on one of those days and begin a minute ((b)) wave up.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
weekly BB is currently 3502 on ES - would that be too long of a target for 5? thank you
ReplyDeleteTypically, if three is the extended wave, then the first target for five is five = one. If this is significantly exceeded, then five = 0.618 x net (one-through-three). TJ.
Deletethanks very much, 3 certainly is extended
DeleteES Daily - price has contacted the lower band & more. This can be a valid fifth wave depending on whether it turns or not. First sign of a turn might be that this daily candle turns into a bullish hammer candle. Sentiment is very over-sold; the daily slow stochastic is over-sold (and not embedded, yet). As Ira would say, "this is likely a time when the pros are 'covering' at least part of their short positions'. Nothing is bullish on the chart unless price gets 'over' the 18-day SMA.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/J4WhTPYe/
TJ
no spike on VIX - still 33 area - so far
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-min: there are a pretty clean five-waves-up on SPY, and now a 38% retrace. With five-waves-up, one needs to see if the low will hold. Any higher high (like for an expanded flat) might point higher, as well, in the shorter term.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0jFLpqit/
TJ
SPY 1-min: now over the prior high; mmm-hmmm..
DeleteTJ
SPY 1-min: suggestion to watch the brown dotted trend-line to see if a larger correction is starting.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/355dxadv/
TJ
Abscence of a new low in some indices might suggest "unfinished business" 😀
ReplyDeletethe vix seem to think so
DeleteES - Daily: hammer candle has currently formed. Let's see if it holds for the day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY 5-min: moving out just a bit: can't say yet how this will go; if it will impulse or possibly form a minute ((b)) triangle. Blue is for impulse; red is for triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9hJRk24c/
TJ
SPY 5-min: counts best as the impulse at the moment.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CU1nMoc0/
TJ
I couldn't upload the chart but converting this into a 1 min chart with approx 140 candles, the proposed Wave 4's Elliot Oscillator is no where near 0.
Delete@TJ I think the 8-step "rules" don't apply when the 1st wave is extended? if I'm wrong let me know.
DeleteThe wave appears to be part of a diagonal (see next day's post), not likely an impulse. That is likely why The Eight-Fold-Path Method for counting an impulse is not followed. TJ.
DeleteNow a multi-month b wave if that was the end of ((a)). Thank goodness its hunting season to keep me out of that.
ReplyDeleteCan the ((b)) wave of 5 be longer than all of wave 4 if the expanding diagonal from ATH needs to be proven? Wave 4 is exactly 42 daily candles (from 6/16/22 to 8/16/22). Just thinking out loud because if wave ((b)) starts now, it likely means wave ((cc)) of 5 will be in Nov/Dec timeframe where are historically low volatility months.
DeleteI have never seen one this big, but I would think as a guideline, b of 5 would take more time than b of 3.
Delete((b)) of 5 'should' not be shorter than all of 4. It seems like that would be a degree violation - since 4 is already formed. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ