The two ES 8-hour charts shown in yesterday's post remain as they are - viable alternates with no emotional investment in either. Yes, as I said, it is certainly possible to go 'over the top' again, but not an absolute requirement.
Speaking of reasonable alternates, I said yesterday it was possible there was a 5-3-5-3-5 expanding diagonal in the process of formation. Here is that chart on the ES 30-minute futures.
Using exactly the same waves, I show the two reasonable alternates. In black, the (i)-to-(v) expanding diagonal. In red, again using exactly the same waves, a reasonable double-zigzag (w), (x), (y). So, here is the question, "why was it so important not to break that 4,110 low again?". I mean the wave on yesterday afternoon missed it by literally a couple of ticks.
Regardless, price is now up to the 78.6% retrace and is back to the prior wave (iv) or (x). It has clearly broken up over the upper diagonal trend line, likely validating that trend line. As an expanding diagonal, the down wave met the typical good form shown by the EMA-34 crossing through each numbered wave. Readers of this blog that have an interest can also verify the expanding pattern in the Elliott Wave Oscillator.
The real question is, "what about that bottom?" Where does one start a proper up count? Is the up wave also an expanding diagonal or expanding triple zigzag? It's a mess for any wave counter, and so the best guide is whether the high is exceeded or not.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
" `someone' insisted on not breaking the low'". LOL! How much more obvious must it become. The degree size of the next trend change will demolish some key support levels on the initial wave down to achieve downside target. There will be absolutely no doubt, imho, about its arrival. This bubble is BIG...in fact, the biggest EVER...! :)
ReplyDeletebtw, another useful guide is how price reacts to lower TL of broken acc channels. On some indices price has risen to exactly tag lower boundary line, and on decreasing volume. Ordinarily this "should" be bearish, but we know better than jumping to conclusions... :)
DeleteGoodness! It's clear that this gets complicated due to lack of obvious impulse waves. It's been the theme since 2018 top. The various alternatives structures make it difficult to make bets with conviction. I realize that this excellent blog is all about counting and not forecasting, but most won't care about the count if it doesn't provide an investment edge. Put differently, by the time the SuperCycle Wave IV is over 9-15 years from now, I'm not sure if there will be any EW believers left!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the evening update!
-TJ
The B Wave Blues by BBRider and the Depressive Wave Counters.
DeleteWe have all our Stimmie Bucks, but an impulsive wave, outta lucks.
DeleteThe World is flooded cash, but my trading account is getting kicked in the ass
I got the B Wave Blues
You count and count but most of the time you lose
I got the B Wave Blues
Agrred T.J. We all understand the blog's primary purpose is correct wave counting and mot discussion of specific trades. I am always amused when some sanctimonious poster takes it upon himself to chastise any reference to trading decisions, no matter how oblique, as if thrre was any other reason onw would spend the time and effort to at least learn the rudiments of EWT. I make dozens of weekly trades,as I am sure other traders on the blog. do. We never talk about them so crrtainly don't need a lecture about blog rules.
DeleteBbrider, that's a blues in the key of B I assume?
DeleteNice Poem BBRider. I'll come out clean and admit that the Expanded B waves and particularly the ones that take us to new highs have been a killer for me over the last few years
DeleteA peek at the hrly (close only) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bTpx.png
ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation) and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/G5d2NbHP/
Very tight Bollinger Bands this morning.
TJ
ES 30-min first down (red) fractal back has been taken out lower.
DeleteTJ
..was playing with this last night; tentative up channel for a 'potential' fourth wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/uj-06
Problem is the shape of the first wave? What is it? An expanding diagonal? Where does it end?
TJ
ES 30-min second down (red) fractal back has been taken out lower.
DeleteThe odd shaped up wave can be a b wave of triangle.
DeleteES 30-min; based on yesterday's work, and now, downward overlap at ((3)), it is 'possible' to consider a truncation low; and wave ((3)) slightly beyond 1.618 in the futures. This is where I said a wave set would end below 4,162. It did.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uj-mb
TJ
Just for curiosity, the a of flat is much smaller than the all waves of b, isn't this degree violation ?
ReplyDeleteI think that 'a' was a smaller wave of a larger flat wave (a) that ended in the after hours at the left-most-down fractal. Hard to show all that detail right now.
DeleteTo have specific trigger levels, for the moment we'll assume support at 4,150 near the 0.382 of the whole wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uk08v
Chart just shows that 5 = 1 gets price over the local high. If that does not contain the wave, then 5 = 0.618 x net [((i))-through-((iii))].
TJ
Hrly update -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bTsK.png
ES 30-min, price has just exceeded the high in five-waves. Could go more if it wants.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..chart ..over the high.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/uk110
TJ
ES 30-min, 1) the only down fractals that matter now are at waves ((2)) and ((4)), and 2) here is an ES 5-min chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uk1es
TJ
ES 5-min; very interesting!
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uk2cq
TJ
..now down to prior wave ((4)) down (red) fractal.
Delete..4,150 has broken lower.
DeleteHrly (follow up) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bTvu.png
Well, a lot happened while I was marking up for post above, lol.
DeleteES 30-min, so far, a 50% retrace of the entire up wave. Very, very short in time. I'm just wondering if these five waves were potentially the 'a' wave, of an a-b-c, up wave for (b), up, for minute ((iv)), down.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/uk2fx
It is just a working hypothesis, and it would require that we go over the top again. So, just keep the emotions out of it.
TJ
Spx - appears C wave down has started on Biden tax proposal.
ReplyDelete(CNBC)
DeleteU.S stocks fell to session lows in a swift fashion on Thursday after a report that President Joe Biden is slated to propose capital gains taxes for the rich.
The S&P 500erased earlier gains and fell 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 230 points to its low of the day, while the Nasdaq Composite traded 0.3% lower.
Bloomberg News reported Thursday afternoon that Biden is planning a capital gains tax hike to as high as 43.4%. The proposed increase would nearly double the current rate for wealthy Americans.
If a larger C wave down has indeed begun, SPX 4100 falls today. If it does not, I remain agnostic while awaiting CB response to the plunge. :)
DeleteSpx - 4107 is probable imho.
Delete@Tachy . . "falls" is underfined. How much does it have to break by? Where does it have to close. It is clear the Elliott Wave methods is a defined system, even if sometimes waves are ambiguous. Whereas your method has three times told me to look for 4,200 but we are closer to 4,100 at the moment.
DeleteTJ
Point well taken TJ. While I still expect 4200 so long as 4100 holds, a break of 4100 with it subsequently proving resistance says I am wrong.
DeleteES 30-min; I'm being very flexible here = if the 4,110 low is taken out, consider the up wave as either an a-b-c (because of the very difficult to count double bottom) or as the c wave of an expanded flat. Then, we might not go over the top again for a while.
ReplyDeleteNeed to be off-line for a bit; ran into some electronics problems.
TJ
I just bought a spec position in COIN. It doesn’t feel good catching a falling knife, ouch...lol
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; at this point I see only three-waves-down from the high using degree labeling.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/E37PMMbe/
TJ
Yep. Now we see if they can prevent a new low. I fully expect an all out assault.
Delete"all out assault" = not defined.
DeleteTJ
Aapl looks ready for the big 3
ReplyDeleteVIX flagging action...
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete