As the waves developed over the last few days, this channel in the ES 4-hr time frame, might indicate that the potential B-3 wave, up, of an Intermediate (X) wave is nearing completion as a possible complex double zigzag.
The Minor B-3 wave should be composed of three minute waves up. The first sequence we counted upward as minuet (a), (b), and a likely diagonal (c). Those waves might compose the minute ((w)) wave. So, the initial sub-wave of minute ((y)) should be smaller in price and time than all of minute ((w)) to agree with degree labeling and it is.
Currently, the upward move is on a divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO), but we do not know it is over. It could be. The length of B-3 is currently 1.38 - 1.5% x the A-3 wave down. This is typical. While prices started down a bit today, it likely needs to breech the inner red parallel lower to draw more definitive conclusions.
As I noted earlier in the comments, there are fully 13+ open daily gaps in the S&P cash chart since the October/November 2020 low. In terms of a single wave upward, I can not recall seeing so many gaps at one time. It's possible there is a wave with more, but I don't recall it, and this is astounding.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks, ET!
ReplyDeleteThank you Joe
ReplyDeleteSPX - as long as we hold 3944, I’m looking to next important fib target at 4440. That would clearly mean we are in the heart of (iii) wave higher imho. Not my count though.
ReplyDeleteIt also would be clearly recognizable as we would be breaking above the upper channel. We shall see.
DeleteFib relationships have been less reliable of late. I think next inflection point is 4100, wt which point I head for the exits. :)
ReplyDelete..this is an unsubstantiated statement; just saying. You throw it out there without providing evidence. I showed weekly Fib targets a while back on this post ..
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/03/weekly-fibonacci-levels.html
The next one is 4,100; and after than 4,150.
TJ
I agree the open gaps are amazing but I think it’s a by product of global liquidity and zero % interest rates.
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. ES 30-min; with the overnight time signature, a triangle (pointing upward) must be 'ruled-in' at this point. The only downward possibility is a diagonal, and it's waves are not apparent yet, so we'll address it if we come to it.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ue5r5
Remember, triangles 'often' (not always) precede the last wave set higher.
TJ
ES 30-min ... so far a 63% retrace on the potential 'c' wave; can get to 78 - 82% later if it wishes for a 'd' wave of a triangle.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/ue5zn
TJ
VIX - bouncing off lower BB. Is not usually a good time to be long short term.
ReplyDeleteJust fyi - Russell 2000 futures (RTY) 30-min: have broken a triangle lower. Possibly an expanding diagonal here.
ReplyDeleteTJ
rty looking like a channel, one more move to the top to clean out that obvious stop area would be nice to see. https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_ce94553658d635c585841351bae9b3d2.png
ReplyDeleteES 30-min; good location for a 'd' wave; about 78 - 82%; let's see if a decent 'e' wave develops.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ue6sq
TJ
ES 30-min: here is a chart update
Deletehttps://invst.ly/ue7q0
TJ
ES 30-min; now has crossed the EMA-34 validating an 'e' wave, at least, in the downward direction.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min; now has 78.6% 'e' wave retrace on the 'd' wave establishing a potentially valid triangle. Note that at this location the 'e' wave did not end on the a-to-c trend line. This is typical for triangles.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/ue8bk
While things could still get messy in here, the parameters are pretty clear cut.
TJ
Reminder: FOMC Meeting minutes at 14:00 ET, and Consumer Credit at 15:00 ET.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min, now up over wave 'd'.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ueb0i
TJ