Thursday, April 15, 2021

Revision to Daily Count

From a degree labeling perspective, the up count to an Expanded Flat Minor B wave lost some credibility today. The upward wave may have gotten too long. As a result, the best idea I have is to keep the ES count compatible with the Dow count, with both indexes in the Intermediate (Y) wave, as below.

ES Futures - 2 Day - Still Intermediate (Y)

At this point, there is insufficient impulsive action lower to assume a second Intermediate (X) wave has started downward yet. From, the first Intermediate (X) wave the count upward is Minor A - which might either be an impulse or a diagonal - barrier triangle Minor B, and now a Minor C wave of Intermediate (Y).

Note that - at this time - Intermediate (Y) is just about as long in time as Intermediate (W). That likely indicates the waves are of the same degree. The slight alternate is that Minor B is back one trough at the beginning of March, as a "running" Minor B wave, and we are in the third wave of C of (Y). However, this wave is beginning to feel a lot like the thrust from a triangle. It has also a slight "throw-over" of the former wedge up trend line.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

27 comments:

  1. BIG wedge! Measured target around 2500.00 Bankster boys gonna be busy...!!! :)

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  2. Looks doable! I think Neely suggested that as ((b)) is > ((a)), the thrust will likely be much larger than ((b)) (up to 2.618 as long)? That's a ways up there!

    DJI (wkly) - time to pack? :o)

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3bQrD.png

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    Replies
    1. Regarding the possible barrier triangle, current thrust is a smidge beyond equality with ((b)).

      Delete
  3. I recommend a listen:
    https://www.realvision.com/shows/daily-briefing/videos/signs-of-trouble-in-the-bank-earnings-blowout-plus-coinbases-debut?utm_campaign=2021414_alert_briefing_leads_combo_1_standard&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=121446793&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9kcnZ0VOYDwk5feO6_ZOUR5tb6QryjH8j7lNWnqVqraiVAErygjy8Aejxucc6EbLQedKg64gd2VWrOy5mCitUbDZ33sA&utm_source=leads_combo

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  4. YM (4hr) -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3bQxT.png

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    Replies
    1. Bull continues to run. I may have exited a tad eatly, lol!. Absent a cash session down-turn the likelihood that price simply consolidating recent gains I think rises. I stopped paying serious attention to fib markers awhile back, and for obvious reasons. I now watch where they inject liquidity.

      Delete
  5. ET,

    I want to understand for B of Y why did you choose a triangle over a flat. The flat will imply we are in (iii) of C.

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    Replies
    1. No evidence of a fourth wave 'yet'. That could change.

      Delete
  6. Good morning all. Here is the ES 30-min, intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation) and local fractals. The market has been breaking up (green) fractals most recently.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/NmNA74Ul/

    TJ

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  7. Fewer than 28 points away. Sure thought they would do it in futures...maybe waiting for new NDX high.

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  8. Under this revised daily count, is there any particular reason to expect another intermediate (X) and (Z) waves? Or is it just as likely that the B wave up ends with intermediate (Y)?

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  9. ES 30-min; back down to 18-per SMA. Getting very whippy in here.
    TJ

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  10. FVRR broke neckline of H&S pattern today.

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  11. Lol! DJIA looking like it wants to print another tantalizing shooting star...yeah right! :)

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  12. https://schrts.co/kEwchqkC

    Not a bad time to take some profits.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lol! I had a single Diamond 340 left and bailed early! Whew! :)

      Delete
  13. SPY 5-min; not too much yet; a break of the ((B)) wave needed for anything significant. Otherwise, an upward flat is possible.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/wSqiAzaB/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..still nothing, but sideways wave can currently be counted as a triangle, which makes the morning low more likely an 'a' wave.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/FEDMabJ7/

      Alternate is b has more ways to go up for a flat.
      TJ

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  14. A peek at the hrly -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3bQPo.png

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    Replies
    1. Price finding strong support at lower trend-line. I would think an upward break should be anticipated with price holding above 4100...

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    2. Looking like 4200 so far proving resistance. I do not think price will trade here for very long...

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  15. SPY now at 90%, for a flat or more.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/W9DHVMbS/

    TJ

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  16. There is a new post started for the next day.

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