In a twist of events, today was an outside range day, up, near the high. This is unusual because most of the outside range days have been fake-out outside range days down.
In a minute ((c)) = ((a)) count for a Minor B-3 wave, it is possible to count a top. So at 2 PM today, my market view shifted from neutral to negative - at least for the short term. The current up wave, minute ((c)), measures between 1.0 and 1.27 x ((a)). And it is now possible - if we are forming an Intermediate (X) wave - that this Minor B-3 wave would be the B wave of an (X) wave triangle. That is because, as the chart above clearly shows, the B-3 wave is now beyond the 1.618 external retrace on wave A-3.
Yes, the wave could still make a Flat, but then it would likely be a "running" or "failure" flat. Further, remember if the low of an outside range day up is taken out in the next two trading sessions, it would constitute a trap for the bulls.
But, right now, the market bias is still up - over the 18-day SMA - and the daily slow stochastic is still fully embedded. So, while it is possible to count a top, it is also possible as was discussed in the comments, that there are a few more waves higher.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Here is the triangle idea on bitcoin, checks all the boxes. I think the idea of players stepping in here before bitcoin micro futures is what is happening and after that the trap door opens.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/CxedSqe
Nyad - naad - Spx a/d line down today.
ReplyDeleteInteresting how price continues upward despite bearish technical metrics. The CBs renain firmly in control and it looks to me like we are once again seeing price consolidation ahead of a move higher? "Ramp & Camp". A decisive move below 4100 would be another matter imho.
DeleteES (daily) - observations
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bPws.png
👍
DeleteVIX - has tagged the lower BB again for 4th time without reversing, now has a 15 handle. You don’t see this very often.
ReplyDeleteYes. Volatility compression is now the most extreme I have witnessed...ever! And I have been trading vol instruments for quite some time. The closest was watching SVXY trade ABOVE its upper BB for several days back in Jan 2018. Fascinating!
DeleteGood morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave counting screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation), and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1vGrf24u/
TJ
..and if it's going to count like this, then ((5)) must remain less than ((3)), as ((3)) is less than ((1)).
Deletehttps://invst.ly/ugv5h
TJ
ES has the new high.
DeleteYM (30min) - new high (10min delay) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bPLD.png
ES 30-min; so ((5)) less than ((3)) at 4,149.25, else alt i, ii in red.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ugv-u
TJ
Seems to me that VIX clearly eliminates any 1-2 count.
DeleteStocks above 200ma (daily), update -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bPMA.png
You rarely see these high levels.
DeleteIs anyone buying COIN IPO. I have a limit order in.
Watching blok, no buys yet.
Deletewouldn't touch coin with BTC triple weekly bear divergences. That thing is poison
DeleteES 30-min; down to a 62% retrace; watch for ending diagonal fifth wave or end of the wave at this morning's high.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ugwvt
TJ
..now down to 78.6%
DeleteAapl chart is interesting for bears. Nq leading the selling again.
DeleteVIX (4hr) - observations
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bPNM.png
I agree and nice chart
DeleteES 5-min; IFF we get into a contracting diagonal situation, upward, then (3) must remain shorter than (1).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ugxup
IFF, the low is taken out, it is taken out by an expanding diagonal, lower. There are a LOT of things to be on the look-out for right now, including a triangle.
TJ
2hr - two schools -
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SPX top 20% - Are they telling us something? (if interested) -
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ES 5-min; this is a potential triangle. Ugly, but, legal within certain limits.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ugyvw
TJ
..and down she goes! likely making the expanding diagonal lower.
Delete..and there is now downward overlap on the first wave up, as well.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/ugyze
TJ
would be appropriate if coinbase IPO and the Madoff death topped this market.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; lower low after diagonal; diagonal was leading in some manner.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ugznf
TJ
How peculiar that the ETF notched a new high but the underlying index did not with Qs; I've never seen that before. Cautionary note regarding a top perhaps...?
ReplyDeleteYou were incorrect about this yesterday, and are once again incorrect about it today. QQQ made an ATH yesterday and so did NDX. They both failed to make a higher high today. They are in total sync.
DeleteES 5-min; possible with the roughly equal lows that a Flat correction will develop to try to hit the upper diagonal down trend line.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ug-7u
TJ
Diagonal retrace does so far appear uncharacteristically shallow...makes sense to me..,,
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