This is all the wave count I have for you on the ES 15-minute chart, since the Minor C wave high.
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| ES Futures - 15 Min Close - Three Waves Down |
At this point, there are only three-waves down: a, triangle b, c and possibly a leading contracting diagonal upward. The wave counting is exceptionally difficult. Perhaps these three waves down start a larger 4-hr downward diagonal, perhaps they don't. There have been a lot of diagonal waves short term in this market, so why not? I'm using a close-only chart just to concentrate on wave form here.
The wave counting is particularly difficult for any one looking for five-wave impulse patterns, down or up.
In case you missed them in the prior post, a four hour chart of the Eur/USD futures (6E) and a daily chart of Gold futures are in that post. Those counts remain on track.
Have a good start to the evening and to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Following your of A then triangle and then 1 of C instead of all of C.
ReplyDelete..don't think so; that would make ii within c, down, larger than all of b in price, and that would be a degree violation. Jack..you need to start thinking of some of these degree considerations.
DeleteTJ
The b which was a triangle the A leg was 120 points down and e was abt 90 points....still bigger than ii of C. Anyway lets see. Thks
DeleteTriangle measurements are almost always stated as to their ((e)) waves.
DeleteMy bad i was talkng abt larger c of ABC of Y. I just realized you might be thinking of ABC down of last two days. Should have been more clear.
DeleteThanks for figuring out a difficult count. How deep a pullback are you expecting? Fib retrace?
ReplyDeleteYw. It's not me or my expectations. 'Typical' diagonals have 62 - 86% retrace waves.
DeleteTJ - is it possible to get an updated long term chart maybe once a week. My pea brain gets lost between short term waves within larger waves. I’m also curious what your wave count is from ‘09 bottom. Do you see us in larger wave 5. Thanks very much for your work. ATB
ReplyDeleteLook at:
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/06/trillions.html
https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/11/for-those-seeking-five-up.html
To my knowledge of TJ's knowledge and explanations in those posts, we are looking at an intermediate WXY structure currently - with possibility of the extra +XZ (WXYXZ). Or, WXY structure to complete the Primary ((B)) wave up. To be determined.
Thank you TA, that explains why TJ doesn’t see us in a bull market but in Super Cycle 4. I assume Primary ((C)) wave down will be a lower low.
DeleteAs far as non-EW technical analysis goes, I will assume price is indeed trending down due to VIX, VVIX, and VX futures being up for the day (on a VIX-crush Friday mind you) and with SPX/VIX being down. Further confirmation is needed after the trend backtests that occurred Friday, between tighter and looser trend lines, confirmation being a break to the downside. The 3 indices closed at a semi-key price level (rectangle box).
ReplyDeleteES: https://www.tradingview.com/x/LwdmmaIn/
NQ: https://www.tradingview.com/x/C9h5oQDs/
YM: https://www.tradingview.com/x/t71oX84l/
SPX: https://www.tradingview.com/x/V1fnNK11/
QQQ: https://www.tradingview.com/x/zjRzM9vD/
DIA: https://www.tradingview.com/x/5dMqpDCO/
Apologies for my lines and circles that look like an American football formation strategy. It is quite hard for EW count at the moment like you said. Timing is a sucker's game compared to pricing, but if I were to venture out on a long and thin limb, a move to the downside on ES would have to come by EOD Monday, maybe even sooner - ES or SPX Sunday/Monday opening gap to the downside with further downside escalation, similar to Feb 24: https://www.tradingview.com/x/xCc6MQGk/
Cheers
Observations on weekly Gold -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39jti.png
Last upmove certainly seemed corrective. 1740s is my target. Thanks for your chart
Delete2 things on the SPX monthly I'm watching -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39kdy.png
That megaphone pattern is still in play and could eliminate a bullish thesis.
DeleteThe difficulty of counting waves in this market is illustrated by a few attempts I have seen this week-end. Some analysts have become so desperate to try and make sense of the incredibly choppy action that they are putting out wave counts with ridiculous degree violations, even to my relatively un-trained eye! Tough market!
ReplyDeleteFor those that have an interest in the SPX/Gold ratio, thoughts on the monthly close only -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39m5C.png
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bofa-central-banks-are-buying-13-billion-assets-every-hour-creating-frankenbull-market
ReplyDeleteIs it possible that this accounts for the intractable waves we are seeing?
Yes. Trillions in negative yields around the globe. Money moves where it’s treated best, right now it’s equities. I will not be surprised in the next depression, the US. will probably have negative yields too. The fed intends to keep rates at zero through ‘23 and QE. Around the world. That keeps the bull alive IMHO
Deletefed does NOT control rates
DeleteIf interested, some thoughts on the monthly $$$ -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39mtV.png
Here are some thoughts on how the evening is starting out, so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pyiSnD2h/
TJ
..in the first try at it, the ES was a point shy of the 62% retrace.
DeleteTo be determined I suppose, but DXY bounced for the new low (5th wave) but EURUSD has 5th wave failure (so far).
ReplyDeleteNote, it is barely possible to count this way to a retrace between 62 - 78%.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/t4lvd
I would want to see a retrace hold the high, or there is something else going on like a flat wave.
TJ
..from what I can see the futures would have downwardly overlapped the (a) wave up.
Delete..yup .. definite overlap now on the (a) wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/t4lyg
TJ
No overlap on cash
DeleteAnd gap closed
DeleteA look at morning 30 min -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39nJj.png
This is a closer look at the turn on 30min (via 5min) - if interested
Deletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39nRg.png
ES 5-min: due to timing and length considerations I can only count this downward as yet another diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/t4o3n
TJ
The early TL break alert on RSI this morning has now come to fruition with a close below the comparable TL on price. (ref. 30min chart posted earlier). Also now below 40 level.
ReplyDeleteYet another "exhaustion gap" look-alike. So far they have all been bullish. I am keenly interested in whether or not we see a DJIA close above 30K as it has been the bulls' "Line in the Sand"....
ReplyDeleteAt the moment, we have upward overlap, and a possible Flat or Running Flat wave up, after the diagonal. There were a clear three-waves up, then a messy wave down to 1.618 of the three-waves up ((A)); so this wave 'could' fail upwards.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/t4pbl
TJ
I take it your ((A)) designation expects a full initial five up on the way to the typically deep diagonal retracement...
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; takes out the low in a running flat; a sign of market weakness - could not get back over the prior high.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..chart update with 'wave counting stop', below.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/t4pqr
TJ
..five waves down follow the Running Flat failure, and cash market closes near the lows.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/t4pwd
TJ
Nevada electors just voted for Trump. WOW!
ReplyDeleteCan't find this on line. Most articles say for Biden.
DeleteI’m sorry guys. I think I got bogus info.
DeleteThe replay of Nevada votes shows 6 for Biden.
ReplyDeletedaily and weekly bull divs on the DXY right now
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete