Currently, the $NYAD - NYSE Advance/Decline Line - is at an all time high. While not impossible for a bear market to start from a high (see Feb, 2020), the reading does reduce the probability of a larger long-term decline at this time.
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| $NYAD - NYSE Advance/Decline Line - Daily |
Meanwhile, some breadth measures like the McClellan Oscillator are showing a divergence.
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| NYSE McClellan Osciillator - Daily - Diverging |
Combining the two likely means that while the $NYAD is at a new high, it is likely doing it 'narrowly' or on 'fewer-and-fewer' stocks. This provides some considerable caution.
Meanwhile, in the news background, the market awaits news of whether the individual stimulus amount in the U.S. will be increased from $600 to $2,000.
From a wave-counting perspective, building on yesterday's post, we said that the minute ((b)) wave of a Minor B wave as an expanded flat, reached the needed 105% level of the prior high in order to qualify for an expanded flat. It appears to have done so as a complex w-x-y wave. So, it has met a 'typical' expectation. But, we can see no reason why - if the market chooses - that the minute ((b)) wave couldn't become longer in time and price as a triple zigzag, perhaps if the larger stimulus is passed. But, let's be clear, it does not have to.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Fear & Greed index has gone from the 90’s to 54 while SPX is hitting new highs.
ReplyDeleteMore shorts for the fire. I'll bring the marshmallows
Delete1hr/4hr morning look -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39GxZ.png
Nice work
DeleteGood morning all. Just a reminder that price is currently up over the daily Bollinger Band, and the daily slow stochastics are just up in over-bought territory and not embedded. Chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/taa5o
TJ
fyi - SPX cash opening gap closed, with cash inside of 1.382
ReplyDeleteTJ
Thanks TJ. Cash BB. have squeezed and Spx is 12% above 200 dma. with 90% above their 200 dma. Reversion to the mean can be nasty.
ReplyDeleteIwm is in trouble. Qqq below 308 would look to be starting a correction.
ReplyDeleteAgree Tim:
DeleteIt looks like the Russell Futures failed to sustain a move above the Fib cluster at 2007.9 and 2018.1 and the ES may dance with the 3735.6 fib before it exhausts.
It's a long way down to the 200 day MAs.
Barchart now shows Percent of Stocks Above 50 day MA ($SMMFI) at 79.84
DeleteObservations on the daily (futures/cfd) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39GVE.png
Thanks GW:
DeleteBarchart now shows 78.7 percent of stocks above 50-day average ($MMFI). Historically, isn't the ride down for this indicator fairly swift?
👍 thanks
DeleteSPX stocks above their 50ma working on a double close key reversal (down) day (currently).
DeleteH&S forming on 60 min S&P
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hour: Here's an up channel to keep an eye on, and an overlap to keep an eye on.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tadn2
Breaking below, and back-testing channel would add probability to a downward minute ((c)) wave of B. Overlap would also.
TJ
$vxn has reversed from lower BB daily at this point.
ReplyDelete