Wednesday, December 30, 2020

Slow, So Far

Likely commensurate with the upcoming New Year's holiday and uncertainty created by Congress, the market today was not in a big hurry to go anywhere. Here is the ES 1-Hr chart as a reminder.


The futures broke the lower wedge trend line, after a back-test of the RSI indicator which we had pointed out in the prior post's comments. But, the down move has not accelerated lower, yet. It could. Further, price has not broken the 3,714 low as of now. If both of these should happen (lower low plus acceleration), it might be possible to see the minute ((c)) wave of the Minor B wave as getting underway.

Until then, it looks like other markets - like the Dollar, or the Euro, might want to make a new low / high. And if so, we must allow that another high is possible here. Perhaps all we have gotten here today is part of triangle which might still point upward.

So, now is the time to remain flexible, calm and patient, and enjoy the upcoming holiday. 

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

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30 comments:

  1. GreywaverDecember 30, 2020 at 5:05 PM

    Thanks for the update! (good to see the RSI on there) :o)

    VIX Wkly/Daily both look interesting here -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/39Jtf.png

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  2. TimHDecember 30, 2020 at 6:21 PM

    Even though NYAD is confirming highs. The A/D lines for SPX & NDX have diverged in December.

    ReplyDelete
  3. TachyonDecember 30, 2020 at 7:32 PM

    Looking for a tag of 3800...

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  4. tradingview alertsDecember 31, 2020 at 10:45 AM

    I added another round of UUP calls this morning. EURUSD has an outside bearish candle currently, DXY might even end up @ 90 end of day. S&P is taking its time...

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    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderDecember 31, 2020 at 10:58 AM

      @tva .. just a reminder this is primarily a 'wave-counting-site', and is not about listing trades or which trader has the most trading prowess. Your opinion of the market is always welcome. Specific trades, etc. are superfluous to the purpose.

      Delete
    2. tradingview alertsDecember 31, 2020 at 11:16 AM

      I am sorry - my apologies, and I will not post trades for that reason in the future. I am continuing on from my comment yesterday about a possible ending diagonal structure I have been watching on 4hr EURUSD. It has more of a "trend" look to it but I think it works.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/NXPxvXV8/

      Delete
    3. tradingview alertsDecember 31, 2020 at 11:26 AM

      (I know my wave degree is many degrees too large - was just trying to illustrate one structure with numbers)

      Delete
  5. Elliott_TraderDecember 31, 2020 at 10:54 AM

    Good morning all. Here is the intraday wave counting screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation). Flexibility is the key right now. And this is a reminder that today is the last trading day of the month, which is sometimes accompanied by window-dressing sloppiness, and Sunday/Monday is the first trading day of the new month which 'often' (not always) sees the inflows from pension funds, 401k's, company bonuses, dividend reinvestment plans, etc.

    https://invst.ly/tb1j5

    From a wave perspective, the center section of the chart (yesterday and overnight) took a lot of 'time' as compared to the prior down wave. And even though the diagonal we correctly counted yesterday was leading with local new lows following it, the 3,714 level has not been broken to the downside yet.

    TJ

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  6. GreywaverDecember 31, 2020 at 11:10 AM

    I thought this was worth pointing out (5min cash) - (something to watch)

    https://funkyimg.com/i/39KBp.png

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  7. Elliott_TraderDecember 31, 2020 at 1:42 PM

    ES 30-min; brief update - there are two more new fractals formed on this time scale, but no fractal has been broken yet since the cash open.

    https://invst.ly/tb2qn

    TJ

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  8. GreywaverDecember 31, 2020 at 2:26 PM

    5min cash update -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/39KQK.png

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    Replies
    1. TimHDecember 31, 2020 at 2:34 PM

      I can’t find any news, probably Market Makers front running new money Jan. 4.

      Delete
    2. GreywaverDecember 31, 2020 at 2:39 PM

      Maybe a 3rd wave?

      Delete
    3. TimHDecember 31, 2020 at 2:58 PM

      3851 cash. I believe that is the limit on B wave if I understand TJ’s count.

      Delete
    4. GreywaverDecember 31, 2020 at 3:09 PM

      Have now exceeded yesterday's high (cash) (per Tradingview)

      Delete
  9. Elliott_TraderDecember 31, 2020 at 3:10 PM

    ES 30-min now the 30 Dec high of 3,738 has been exceeded higher; possibly into a 3rd zigzag for the minute ((b)) wave?

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  10. GreywaverDecember 31, 2020 at 3:18 PM

    Basis 5min cash, this move up from higher low (w2?) is now 2.618 x move up from initial low.

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    Replies
    1. GreywaverDecember 31, 2020 at 3:20 PM

      RSI at 80 level.

      Delete
    2. GreywaverDecember 31, 2020 at 3:40 PM

      "Looks like" 5 waves up from the prior low turning point. (larger third wave?)

      Delete
    3. GreywaverDecember 31, 2020 at 3:43 PM

      Or in 4th of that third?

      Delete
    4. Elliott_TraderDecember 31, 2020 at 3:45 PM

      From what I've learned about Elliott wave and degree, I'm pretty sure what follows is the correct measurement.

      https://invst.ly/tb3db

      Very, very, difficult to get 2.618 waves. And when constructing an Elliott Wave channel, wave ii has to be the most extreme right-hand measurement.

      TJ

      Delete
    5. Elliott_TraderDecember 31, 2020 at 3:52 PM

      ..see how that cash wave would now greatly exceed 2.618?

      Delete
  11. Elliott_TraderDecember 31, 2020 at 3:54 PM

    ES 30-min new all-time high.

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  12. GreywaverDecember 31, 2020 at 5:13 PM

    5min cash EOD - strong move up.

    https://funkyimg.com/i/39KWM.png

    ReplyDelete
  13. Elliott_TraderDecember 31, 2020 at 5:35 PM

    There is a new post started for .. well .. for the New Year!

    ReplyDelete

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