Yesterday, based on the two best chart configurations we could muster, it appeared today was going to be an up day. It was. Price came up very near to the upper parallel channel line shown previously.
So now with about 178 - 180 candles on the ES 2-Hr chart (of the recommended 120 - 160) there is a good possibility of wave (iv) being near wave iv. If you have reviewed The Eight-Fold-Path Methodology, which is the featured post of this blog in the upper right of the page, you can see a wave iii of (iii) which is at the lowest point of the Elliott Wave Oscillator, and wave (iii) is slightly beyond the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, and on a divergence with the EWO. Next, we see that wave (iv) has the characteristic signature where the EWO comes to within a level of +10% to - 40% of the maximum trough of the down wave. It has done this, and the latest EWO histogram candles are red and declining. Within wave (iii), waves ii and iv have excellent alternation as a sharp and a flat.
If wave minuette (i) ended where red (i) is shown, then there is alternation between waves (ii) as a sharp, and wave (iv) as a flat, also.
If the wave is to impulse then a fifth wave down should be made on a further divergence of the EWO. If today, Monday, was an up day, then often, not always, Tuesday is a turn-around day and could result in downward movement.
If an impulse does finish as per The Eight Fold Path Method, then it would be minute ((i)) down, also designated as circle-i.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ.
ReplyDeleteMy only observation is if we are at 5th failure on Friday then on cash we only had one 5 up so far
ReplyDeleteC = .618 * A and .5 retrace of 3 on cash and futures all come in between about ES equivalent 3330 and 3344.
DeleteI could agree to that, But how would you count it on daily?
Deletesame as ET
DeleteWhat i am saying is tomorrow sp has to make another 5 wave up hence we did not see the end of 4 today
ReplyDeleteCash
ReplyDeleteWouldnt the eight fold path be able to tell us if (i) ended at the blue or red location?
ReplyDeleteIt needs to validate the count. First <3333, later daily bar turns red.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a bust.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely. It will be very quiet here.
DeleteSeeing this on NQ 5 mins. Trendline from the top has been touched.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Xtv2JWz
Not sure what happened to them (the links dont work now), but didnt the person doing the rsi stuff suggest this was likely for spx as well?
DeleteBen - I am able to access the link.
DeleteDo you happen to have it handy?
DeleteThanks
Likely 2nd wave.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/KZcU2wW
Leaning towards this count, looking at AO signature.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/ead2UXk
Triangle can be cleanly seen on 5 mins chart.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/rNeTDcH
Good election day morning. Hope everyone has voted / is voting, if you are eligible. That is the most important item. I would be cautious in counting waves today, as the volume might be light. I'm showing the volume so far as being recorded by TradingView, in the chart below. Best count appears to be the minute ((i)) shown in the earlier post, and now into minute ((ii)).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hKzIPuPL/
Although there is no overlap yet, the day isn't over, by any means, nor the vote counting. They could try to fill an SPX cash gap at 3,390.
There is a real "outside chance" a triangle for wave (iv) could yet work, but the problem with that is that it appears the up legs of the a wave of a triangle would have created a degree violation, as it is larger than all of (ii). So, I'm leaving that one off the table for now. The upward retrace is already 50% of the entire wave.
Thoughts or questions?
TJ
30 Min chart- 3 closes outside BB's
DeleteBecause of the structure of the daily chart, with oversold readings on the slow stochastic, one must allow that there could be a rally to the 18-day SMA - perhaps in line with the FED meeting - and there could be a "battle at the 18-day SMA", etc. As a reminder, here is the daily chart.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NxdGaxJb/
This could be a very whippy time, so patience, caution and flexibility are still very warranted.
TJ
@JohnnyG .. I completely agree with that as an alternate scenario. Why? Because of 'time'. If you look, this wave 'can be' counted downward as A-B-C, or A-B-((i)); A-B-minute-i. As such, this entire correction is now longer in time than the Intermediate (C) wave down from February to March of this year. That means 'at minimum' this down wave 'must be' at least of the 'same degree' as that down wave in terms of time. That means if the wave goes over the high, then it would be that Intermediate (X) has completed. See chart below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cuOFYm57/
I don't think this is the case, because, a minute ((i)) wave has stayed just shorter than the length of Minor A, meaning it can very well be the first sub-wave lower.
But, it just could be that the decline is over. The only way to tell for sure is to make a new high.
TJ
TJ
DeleteThis entire correction could also potentially be a part of a larger triangle?
After you ABC, maybe we are working on a D and then a E to finish X wave and then new highs?
@Fibo .. possible, but not in the DOW.
Deletetest
ReplyDeleteSo far all the moves up are impulsive and down moves corrective..
ReplyDeleteSo far the .5 retrace from 3540 has held. However, the bear case would probably have to look for a flat W2 as it would be unlikely to correct a 3 week decline in just over 2 days. It would also still have the problem in the revised count, that W3 down was <1.618 * LD W1.
ReplyDeleteIf the .5 breaks and especially if there is still election uncertainty lingering, then triangle from Sep 1 maybe would be first thing to look out for.
..just keep in mind a triangle doesn't work on the DOW.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete