In the downward direction, the Dow 30-minute futures, shown below, already have upward overlap as shown by the orange line. The ES 30-minute futures do not. One should approach this situation with a high degree of caution.
It is possible the Dow futures wish to make an expanding diagonal lower. They must prove it with a fifth wave that is longer in price than the third wave.
It is possible that the ES futures wish to make a "running triangle" fourth wave. They must prove it with a fifth wave lower to about the 3,500 mark or beyond.
While these are both realistic counts, they are also counts which have lower odds. The reason they are even considered is because cash does have a 1.618 wave, downward, but does not yet show signs of a fifth wave lower. So caution may be the best approach, using defined fractals as wave-markers. The Dow count should not trade over the high of the second wave for a diagonal. For a triangle, the ES should not trade over the the 3,558 level.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks,
ReplyDeleteAlso possible to count an impulse on ES, and now in a (so far) very weak bounce.
https://invst.ly/sscii
Can the 3626 level yesterday on SPX be a valid truncation? Or is't too
Deletelow?
https://invst.ly/ssck9
too low; 78.6% minimum; otherwise all kinds of b waves can be called truncations.
DeleteYes that make sense
DeleteAny update on your ideas about gold? Especially given yesterday's move?
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Observations on 45min -
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GW - ET:
DeleteI seem to remember this pattern in ES Futures (sideways chop after a significant High) only in Treasury Bonds in 1995 at the time Jeff Vinik bot the bonds heavily in the Magellan Fund. That caused a spike high, followed by a sideways pattern for a few days before beginning to trend down for over a year.
Neg HD was negated with higher close.
DeleteA few observations on 4hr - (if interested)
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Add'l note: after updating, Sto is showing a higher reading than prior peak, but at a lower price (so far). This is typical of a negative HD (downtrend).
DeleteSPY 5-minutes; Ugly waves. Time to be on overlap watch. If the market-makers wish, they can rescue an impulse out of this thing. But, that would seem much less likely if overlap occurs.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ssuar
TJ
According to these quotes overlap has just occurred.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/ssudz
TJ
A quick look at the hourly -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/38zaF.png
Oh no, the same bull market from 11 years ago still going. Why bother counting waves or whatever?
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