Friday, November 20, 2020

Bull-Head

Catfish or bottom feeders. After the five-wave diagonal we counted downward in near real time, the market tried to mount a rally to the prior 38% high we pointed out yesterday. For the time being at least, it double topped there at 07:00 EST.


Intraday, we counted out a diagonal, and looked for clues from it. It did break lower but it took a lot of time to do it.

Towards the settlement, in whippy behavior the futures market again made a dive for the lows resembling bottom-feeding fish. While the low did not break by settlement, it could, if it wants in the after-hours tonight or Sunday. All-in-all, most will just see it as a poor close, and perhaps people just leaving the market in advance of the holiday week.

Cash SPX is not showing much, if any at all, of repeated retesting of the bottoms. That is sure interesting - more invisible waves.

The larger count remains as it was yesterday, until this smaller pattern is resolved.

Have a good start to the weekend,

TraderJoe

10 comments:

  1. Update on VIX daily - Observations

    https://funkyimg.com/i/38NAY.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe the VIX is trying to fill the gap at 18 from Feb.

      Delete
    2. If the bullish EW counts calling for SPX 4000.00 are correct, that is a foregone conclusion. That open gap has been to me a cautionary note for several months now for any bearish count.

      Delete
  2. The markets don’t need to do much to get the VIX down to 18. The day traders remind me of 1999. We are at the level of optimism. I watched a video on TikTok the other day about this young trader that grew his 66,000 inherited IRA to 4.4 million dollars this year...haha! Not sure if I believe it or not. But, I see numerous things on social media of young traders bragging about how easy trading is. Even Robinhood traders are outperforming hedge funds. Record high optimism in the face of rising unemployment and long food bank lines. Amazing!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sentiment is certainly at an extreme. Having for some time watched ordinarily bearish market signals routinely being negated, it seems clear to me that trying to gauge likely market direction by appeal to either technical orfundamental metrics is fraught with danger these days. Central bank intervention has imho greatly altered the way markets behave. I know some will demur. Dicussions with other traders, actively trading the market, and most revealing, watching very able analysts trying to make sense of the unfolding waves in my mind leaves no doubt.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thoughts on the 4hr (if interested) -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/38QcF.png

    ReplyDelete
  5. A look this evening on the hourly - (10min delay)

    https://funkyimg.com/i/38QPM.png

    ReplyDelete
  6. I have moticed that quite often when ES puts in a lower low, the cash session follows, even if there is what appears to be a bullish ES reversal prior to the next cash session. Futures ramp could be a bull-trap. VIX should confirm.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Update to last night's hourly -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/38RnT.png

    ReplyDelete
  8. A new post is started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete