Again, because of the price action today, this variant of the count, with roughly 130 candles on the chart, now appears to have the best chance for success. We have been attempting to count an impulse, if at all possible. We did give some brief consideration to an overall diagonal lower, but the upward waves today became too long in price and time, so the diagonal consideration is now in the background.
The singular problem with this count is the size of the minuet (a) wave of the minute ((iv)) triangle of Minor wave 3. However, recall we had this same issue counting to the upside in January and February, 2018, when we called for a Minor 4 triangle because the minute ((a)) wave would have been too long and created a degree conflict. If this same consideration is given, then wave Minor 3 occurs within points of the 1.618 x 1 extension, as shown by the Fibonacci ruler. The consideration is that the minute ((iv)) triangle resolves the degree conflict with the size of Minor 2. It results in minute ((iii)) of Minor 3, on the low of the Elliott Wave Oscillator, and Minor 3 on a divergence, as per The Eight Fold Path Method which is the featured post in this blog (see link on the upper right).
Subsequently, we'd have three waves up, yesterday and today, to minute ((a)), up, and we already know we had a near 100% downward wave to a near-equal low. This could be the minute ((b)) wave of Minor 4 - or part of it. The EMA-34 finally contacted what could be part of the fourth wave.
But, so far, while the EWO is close to the zero line, price is not up near the upper channel line. So, again, a significant difficulty in a trending market is assuming it will reverse. It hasn't really yet, and we are not assuming it will. The market must show us that.
Minute ((b)) could go down to between 1.382 or 1.618 x wave minute ((a)), up. A flat wave for Minor 4 would alternate well with Minor 2 and the alternation would finally be in the expected sequence for an impulse (a zigzag or sharp for Minor 2, and a flat or sideways for Minor 4).
Congress has not yet agreed to the larger stimulus package for the economy. It would be great if they did so, soon.
Have a great start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Flat? |
The singular problem with this count is the size of the minuet (a) wave of the minute ((iv)) triangle of Minor wave 3. However, recall we had this same issue counting to the upside in January and February, 2018, when we called for a Minor 4 triangle because the minute ((a)) wave would have been too long and created a degree conflict. If this same consideration is given, then wave Minor 3 occurs within points of the 1.618 x 1 extension, as shown by the Fibonacci ruler. The consideration is that the minute ((iv)) triangle resolves the degree conflict with the size of Minor 2. It results in minute ((iii)) of Minor 3, on the low of the Elliott Wave Oscillator, and Minor 3 on a divergence, as per The Eight Fold Path Method which is the featured post in this blog (see link on the upper right).
Subsequently, we'd have three waves up, yesterday and today, to minute ((a)), up, and we already know we had a near 100% downward wave to a near-equal low. This could be the minute ((b)) wave of Minor 4 - or part of it. The EMA-34 finally contacted what could be part of the fourth wave.
But, so far, while the EWO is close to the zero line, price is not up near the upper channel line. So, again, a significant difficulty in a trending market is assuming it will reverse. It hasn't really yet, and we are not assuming it will. The market must show us that.
Minute ((b)) could go down to between 1.382 or 1.618 x wave minute ((a)), up. A flat wave for Minor 4 would alternate well with Minor 2 and the alternation would finally be in the expected sequence for an impulse (a zigzag or sharp for Minor 2, and a flat or sideways for Minor 4).
Congress has not yet agreed to the larger stimulus package for the economy. It would be great if they did so, soon.
Have a great start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks Joe. May I ask, what is the reason to say today's leg down is not 5 and a B of 4?
ReplyDeleteEwo not high enough. Should be +10%, channel not touched, and down wave too short.
DeleteET, Working on some trading rules and guidelines this weekend. What was the guideline I have heard here about net distance of travel for a fourth wave compared to two?
ReplyDelete..'often times' the net distances traveled will be similar, even though those percentages will be different.
DeleteThank you, hope your having a great weekend.
DeleteI would be interested in views as to the price action subsequent to the 2017 peak for the attached chart. All comments welcome. :o)
ReplyDeleteThanks
https://imgur.com/7rrQWSM
At the trendline of expanding diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/feOwZO9
Are you thinking that is c of b of a flat for 4?
DeleteThe Expanding Diagonal would also make c of B very close in price to a of B. I think we are all looking for a C up due to the stimulus and to end wave 4. There is another gap in the futures this evening and another gap where wave 4 should end near the upper trend line at 2650ish. Hopefully congress can get their act together :)
DeleteAm thinking of 5 down if we go expanding diagonal path.
DeleteBack inside weekly 2016 election bar.
ReplyDeleteAre futures still limit down?
ReplyDeleteNo at this moment. I'm in Asia time zone. Currently, futures are being traded on IG and these are the data,
DeleteSPX: -3.9%
NDX: -3.9%
DOW: -4.5%
If this rise sticks, B was a near perfect 1.38 of A.
ReplyDeleteCould also just be the b of B.
Deletehow do you count that advance?could it be wxy instead of abc?
DeleteAgree !
DeleteGood morning. Here is an interesting thought on the U.S. Dollar Index; for a fourth wave should hold 38 - 50% of the third.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q7k83
TJ
Looking to see this iv wave to hold and then go up to cross ET's ((a)).
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/55kyIcm
Invalidation @ 2174.5
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/55kyIcm
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteCorrection might be over and 5 waves up now.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/pCH6evO
We need a new low..
DeleteLOW. Today or tomorrow
ReplyDeletejoe - hope you are well
ReplyDeletethanks, and you and yours as well.
DeleteCheck out that 2 day move in gold.
ReplyDeleteNikkei leading the way up.
ReplyDeleteSo, evidence for and against having ended c of four?
ReplyDeleteI picture ET with a shirt saying "I don't always take time for myself, but when I do, we are in a fourth wave".
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. On the US Dollar (DX), overnight, the futures did come down to that 38.2% retrace. Now, it is a 'question' of whether it wants to impulse higher or not. I can make a case for either, depending on the FED actions at this time. The longer term count would 'seem' to not prefer making an impulse up.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q80fp
So, if we don't go over the weekly high, the red A-B-C alternate would work as a sub-wave in a corrective. If we impulse, then the weekly high needs to be watched very, very carefully.
TJ
..and if we start downward, instead, look for an expanding diagonal downward.
DeleteIn the ES 4-hr, price has contacted the EMA-34; neither a FLAT nor a "running triangle" can be ruled out at this time.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q80ng
TJ
Here are two possible channel lines as best I can draw.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/CFqLWna
4hr ES now got in the -10 to +40 range
ReplyDeleteJust for info: ES -1Hr - Got to 78.6%, and fell off. Possible leg of a triangle, but can be other things - as well.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q82gr
TJ
The most up friendly I can draw the 4hr channel would allow, maybe with some sneak, a high over 2499.
ReplyDeleteET not much conversation going on your blog today...can you post an update on the 15 minute chart...? i m not sure if we are in the 3rd or 5th wave from the bottom...Thanks
ReplyDeleteI don't think there is anything definitive, but looking at spy, sox, xbi, rut, dji, ndx the move looks to be nearing completion. Today's spy volume was lowest since 3/6, vix rose during the day. Just some observations
ReplyDeleteif the flat is expanded though rather than running, we probably have another ~7% to the upside to go
Delete