What? Today they blamed the stock market going up on Joe Biden beating Bernie Sanders (although we did say it could likely go up 'after' the FED rate cuts). I thought the stock market going up was supposed to be blamed on Donald Trump? What's going on here!
 |
| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Some Or all of 2 |
In the above chart, the current up trend line has not been broken to the downside. And, the time of the recent up wave does not yet exceed the number of bars in Minor 1, down. One person (not me) has counted this up wave as minute waves ((w))-((x))-((y)). Another really good option is that the first series, up, was minute ((a)), and we'll make a minuet (a)-(b)-(c) down to falsely break the up trend line and get everyone bearish again, in a minute ((b)), down, and then there will be a minute ((c)) wave upward - the "see your creator" wave.
If there is another set of large waves upward in the overnight, then it is also possible to get (a)-(b)-(c), up to ((a))-3, and then a ((b))-3 wave down to 90%. A third option is that minute ((w))-((x))-((y)) double-zigzag lengthens out to a relatively rare triple zigzag, upward.
As I have said, with eight different ways - excluding triangles - that this correction can occur, an unskilled analyst has a 1:8 random chance of getting it right. A skilled analyst has about a 1:3. At least we can outline the most-probable routes.
That's all for now.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Can the Dow make a .618 retrace? or as it stands now at a .50 percent either way it tops tonight in the Globex W,X,Y,X,Z . The Japan 225 tops the U.S. markets tonight.
ReplyDeleteLeast diagonal I suppose makes another option?
ReplyDeleteNo. Minute ((c)) 'can not' be a diagonal in it's entirety because minute ((a)) is an expanding diagonal, and there should be alternation. However, minuet (v) of minute ((c)), a wave of one lower degree, can be a diagonal.
Delete..that is just one reason why a solid understanding of 'degree' is so important.
DeleteLook like this is small wave 3 of 'A' of wave 2 of bear major wave 'A'. Probably crests tomorrow. Pullback (small 4) Fri & Mon due to increasingly bad CV news. Then small wave 5 next Tue - Wed. After that, we launch into a re-test of the recent low.
ReplyDeleteThe Fed keeps pumping overnight & tomorrow since they can't allow small wave 3 to be less impressive than small wave 1.
Crested at the close yesterday. Yikes. Will there even be a fifth wave up?
DeleteET, Thanks for the update. Would it be possible for b wave to be a triangle?
ReplyDeletePossible. Yes. But much less likely after its cousin pattern, the minute ((a)) wave expanding diagonal. That would be poor alternation.
Delete5am C of Triangle? Has the right EWO look so far.
ReplyDeleteLike you said, so many combinations. May just go fishing today.
DeleteOn the 5 minute it looks like an impulse down. This does not clear it up much as I believe on impulse is allowed in a triangle. Here is the channel reset with c of b.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/2ot9THO
From what I can measure, the ES at the open had a 1.618 x 1 wave down, and would need to make a new low for an impulse lower.
ReplyDeleteHere was my thinking with the EWO.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/nKgciDu
I tend to be on the less patient side.
DeleteHere is a chart, and I added a 'wave counting stop', above 38.2% of the total move down.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q0ysh
TJ
..since there was a 'perfect' 1.618 wave, and assuming now the wave counting stop gets hit, and with such a large gap in cash; it is likely that ((1)), ((2)), ((3)), is just a-b-c to ((1)) of a diagonal wave. And wave ((2)) is now underway ..making a more realistic retrace.
Delete..upward 1.618 is 3,084-5.
Delete..there is now one downward overlap inside of 1.618 ..warning..
Delete..chart ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/q0zi8
TJ
..second downward overlap; sure seems like ((A))-((B))-((C)), down, and ((A))-((B))-((C)), up. They are making this as hard to count as possible.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/q0zj-
TJ
..downward wave has broken up channel
DeleteES 5-min: if it comes to it, measured move target could exceed the low.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/q0zw4
TJ
Does this make sense?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/zOsQZ9H
No. Because in an expanding diagonal, there can be "NO" flat waves for the major legs. You have wave (d) as a Flat.
DeleteOK... thank you
DeleteI'm not arguing, just looking for clarification as my "crib" sheet has following for triangles:
DeleteTRIANGLES A B C D E
ascending, descending, contracing or expanding • Corrective structure labelled as ABCDE
• Usually happens in wave B or wave 4
• Subdivided into three's (3-3-3-3-3)
• RSI also needs to support the triangle in every time frame
• Subdivision of ABCDE can be either abc, wxy, or flat
..don't know where you got your crib sheet, but the last item breaks the EW rules, as published. Please do not post more charts until you have re-read the basic books, as I do not want my readers to get confused. Use no "crib sheets" other than the published books.
DeleteThanks ET
DeleteLet's see if this will turn out correct. All of wave ((3)) is below a line from 0 - ((2)). Upward overlap would be expected from this pattern.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q0-up
TJ
..upward overlap just occurred .. IF and when wave ((4)) burns out, there should be a marginal lower low for ((5)).
DeleteTJ
..ES has the marginal new low .. likely now in ((5)).
Delete1. No rules have to be broken.
Delete2. Fibonacci levels can be stated.
3. Retrace percents can be given.
https://invst.ly/q10ft
And, the fact that there was a 'lower' fifth wave, and not a failure, tells us that it 'can' be a leading diagonal, probably an 'a' wave.
TJ
..to keep the diagonal in tact, then ((5)) must remain less than ((3)).
DeleteDo we still have a 53535 ED from 3136 that was not retraced.
ReplyDeleteI always wonder if one should expect retraces to take more time than impulse move when dealing with c waves or diagonal retraces as we are on larger time frames.
BBR .. ED's are NEVER 5-3-5-3-5; only 3-3-3-3-3. So I don't know what your question is.
DeleteTJ
Confused then what your above meant?
DeleteIt was from the "First of the Month Money post.
DeleteI think I got it, leading diagonals can be 53535 not
Deleteending.
right
DeleteFirst breech of falling upper diagonal wedge line.
ReplyDelete..now likely into a second or b wave, up. But, the lows must hold, however.
Delete