Wednesday, March 25, 2020

'Minimum' Wave 4 Attained

With 144 candles on the ES 4-hr chart, price moved above the minute ((a)) wave, meeting the 'minimum' expectation for a flat fourth wave. As such, if the fourth wave holds, it would alternate really well with the sharp (or zigzag) second wave.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Minute ((c)) above ((a))

The 4-hr candle at the cash close (the just one prior to the settlement candle) was a weak Gravestone Doji. It did not close exactly equal to its open, but close to it.  For this candle to indicate the end of the fourth wave, the high of the candle should hold, and there should be a confirming lower close candle below the EMA-34. 

If confirmation of the Gravestone Doji is not obtained, then it is still possible the upward wave is in a fourth wave triangle. In that case, it would be minuet (iv) of minute ((c)). However, from the minute ((b)) wave low, five-waves-up can be counted including a slight truncation at today's high. That truncation would be acceptable.

The Elliott Wave Oscillator is about as high as it should get on this trip above the zero line, so watch any further upward movement in price and the oscillator carefully. The EWO should try to hold 100 - 120 for the fourth wave.

If the Minor wave 5 begins in earnest, it should make a new low and not truncate before doing so. Trading below the EMA-34 and the mid-line of the channel shown would be mile posts along the way to a potential new low.

Have a good start to your evening,
TraderJoe

49 comments:

  1. Thanks ET! 5 waves up so far, qualifies for end of C.
    Wait and watch game.

    https://imgur.com/a/GangR92

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Joe for for your excellent work. I am looking at gold atm and I don't know if this could be a legitime count. Would you care to have a look?

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1stqI9H1fTq5KtTtzllvIsvW7gDHpjQB5

    ReplyDelete
  3. As labeled, (a) of ((4)) goes into ((1)) price territory.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Gonna try and hold the last channel line.

    https://imgur.com/iX8QncZ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looks like it, so far. And without breaking significant pivot points.

      Delete
  5. This would be the count if it sticks.

    https://imgur.com/LoMDgFa

    ReplyDelete
  6. On the 1 minute, I think we are dealing with an extended 1st wave and are looking for the 4 at this time.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Last wave up ? Divergence on EWO.

    https://imgur.com/1hCcJ2j

    ReplyDelete
  8. Good morning all. A plausible configuration for a better minute ((c))..

    https://invst.ly/q8y0b

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. Thanks ET, Missed the alternation for (iv).

      Delete
    3. Looking at the daily ES, and to paraphrase, Ira, "when the embedding reading is lost, price and the 18-day SMA will often make a run at each other."

      https://invst.ly/q8yk5

      TJ

      Delete
  9. Top of the corrective channel hit.

    ReplyDelete
  10. My attempt at the squiggles.

    https://imgur.com/W9gzQoG

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. Maybe an E-D from here. Otherwise there are unexplained overlaps.

      Delete
    2. That should be it for the diagonal.

      Delete
  11. This is plausible, includes a 'wave-counting-stop'.

    https://invst.ly/q8--w

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  12. The SPY EWO past 100-120 on my 8 fold path charts. Argues for wave 2, yes? Guideline not rule, yes? But strong indication?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. or 3 waves down from ATH like dec 2018

      Delete
    2. Yes, especially with the choppy nature from 3130 down relative to the first decline. I doubt that would be the final low with the scale of what's happening - I wonder if that could be 1 of a diagonal down? Either way, with the size of the move from the low, we should be looking at a retrace down rather than a wave 5 to new low.

      Delete
    3. maybe the scale is less than is priced in already

      Delete
  13. I will leave that to the more skilled, but the end of the month is coming and w/o real bad news, like the House not passing the stimulus tomorrow, I am thinking we will likely see the EWO invalidate wave 4 and then look for a wave 1 invalidation for your 3 waves down.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If the wave 4 is invalidated, and this last impulse was a larger degree Wave 1 down, then we should keep an eye on the gaps above, for Wave 2 target, true?

      Delete
  14. Just spit-balling here, but maybe five ended and we are now in a LD? Maybe expanding?

    ReplyDelete
  15. With the advance today could this first leg down be an expanding diagonal? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  16. Can the rise from 1.33pm be the 5 from the morning low, and is there a count on deck if it were to keep going?

    ReplyDelete
  17. TJ, I would love to hear your thoughts on longer term picture. Most EW analysts seem to believe that we are in wave 4 from 2009 low. However if Feb 2018 high was in fact the end of wave 5, everything since then has been a complex correction and could go on for a while. I know that this count doesn't quite fit the eight-fold-path, but would love to hear your thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
  18. With the wave-counting stop hit, next most plausible pattern is the triangle, as follows.

    https://invst.ly/q90xx

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  19. To just about .382 from the top on SPX. I don't think it's a 4.

    ReplyDelete
  20. A larger ending diagonal with a throw over?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 5 longer than 3, some 7 billion market on close issue.

      https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-futures-explode-40-points-higher-one-tick-7-billion-market-close-imbalance

      Delete
    2. ES looks like an expanding diagonal. So 5 would be longer than 3 right?

      Delete
    3. I think it looks good. BB if you are referring to 3 from the morning low, it could be as much as 95 pts.

      Delete
    4. I dont see it. Can you put up a pic or tell me were the 1234 are with some es numbers?

      Delete
    5. Is this what your thinking?

      https://imgur.com/JTCp3n0

      Delete
    6. no no no. Just wave five of c of four

      Delete
  21. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  22. There was no real pullback in December 2018. IF this were similar, we are probably roughly equivalent to about January 18 / 2650, and maybe there would be a few days sideways. Something to look out for.

    ReplyDelete
  23. 5th wave of C ?

    https://imgur.com/a/SsqZ2gi

    ReplyDelete
  24. We are very close to 50% pull back from 3131 to 2192. Unless SPX is above 2775, the trend is still down. The headline read "Best 3 days rally since 1931", we all know what happens afterwards in 1932.

    ReplyDelete
  25. ndx/nq is going to overlap wave 1 tonight or tomorrow (in my opinion)

    why is it so easy to watch market going up and keep calling tops (and being wrong)
    but
    when it goes down everyone afraid of calling bottoms (and being right)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you haven't called anything unless I missed something..

      Delete
    2. Replying here so you see it. Regarding the scale maybe being less than what was already discounted - are you thinking the recent low was P4, or something different?

      Delete
  26. i don t see enough fear in the markets to be a bottom yet..do you??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Long term, no. But I think the first move down will be retraced minimum 50%. Maybe this is that retrace.

      It is also possible with the printing presses running to squeeze one more high out of this cycle. Maybe it is already P5? It is possible.

      Delete
  27. If we leave the corrective channel higher, I am wondering about the following.

    What if the Contracting Leading Diagonal that was drawn in 1 was correct. Then 2 was a flat with a deep b showing extreme weakness that did ensue.

    https://imgur.com/VBuEfNO

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The 4hr EWO is now out of common range for a 4.

      Delete
  28. A new post is started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete