At the end of the day, with 140 candles on the 4-hr chart, the Elliott Wave Oscillator has just gone to the other side of the zero line.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - EWO is Above Zero |
Using The Eight Fold Path Method, this most likely means prices are into the Minor 4th Wave as shown on the chart. Typically, this wave should retrace about 38% of Wave 3, and tends not to go much beyond 50% of Wave 3. So, there is not any clear evidence that wave minute ((c)) of Minor 4 is over. It may challenge the upper channel . It may try to fill the gap below minuet (a).
However, the EWO should not go to beyond +40% of the trough reading. We'll address that situation only if it should occur before a Minor 5th wave low. Wave Minor 5 should make a new low. It should not truncate. It could become as long in price as Minor 1. But, if Minor 5 does make a new low, it should occur on a divergence with the lowest through on the Elliott Wave Oscillator.
It looks like Congress is working on the larger stimulus bill, but as of this writing, the work is expected to carry-over into Wednesday.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
The alternate (high EWO) would be A up of same degree as the 3 or possibly 5 waves down from the top. If it is 4 on the way down, then right now it is similar in time and price to 2. So I think 4 should turn early in cash hours, and if it goes longer and higher than that, the alt becomes increasingly likely.
ReplyDeleteI suspect it may be the alt with no 5 to come, but we will see how this goes.
((c)) of Minor 4 Must be an impulse right?
ReplyDeleteNo. I could be a diagonal ((c)). Where did you get the idea it could only be an impulse?
DeleteWasn't ((a)) a diagonal? So ((c)) shouldn't/ couldn't be a diagonal?
DeleteWhat? No. Minute ((a)) is just a 3-wave sequence, followed by a >90% ((b)) wave for a Flat wave. That was explained very clearly in previous comments.
DeleteSome analysts convinced a larger impulse up underway. Green VIX print at the close suggesive of a corrective upward move imho...
ReplyDeleteJoe, do you think your previous B wave top is still a possible option or do think Wave 5 top is much higher probability.Thanks
ReplyDeleteLooks good so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/eyvbXVW
C of 4 = 1.618(A) @~ 2555 ES, which will be very close to .382 retrace of wave 3 from the top.
ReplyDelete.382 retrace of the full drop from top @~ 2650 SPX.
Should now be in or done 4 of C from the low. At this point, the remaining wave 5 would have to be a big one to hint at any more rebound than C of 4. Looks like 2000 is coming soon.
Is this a triangle in here on ES?
ReplyDeleteI was thinking the same
Deletebbrider, can u post a chart please..I dont see it
DeleteMany things not to like, but here is the idea.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/K9qhE65
On futures since 2498 high
DeleteIf there was a failure wave at d in the above, I do not think it would be hanging around here this long.
DeleteFyi only (from CNBC) - Negative rates come to the US: 1-month and 3-month Treasury bill yields are now below zero.
ReplyDeleteVIX is not breaking down in this rally. At major trend line support.
ReplyDeleteAny intra-day counts today ET?
ReplyDeleteDaily S&P 500 futures appear to be losing the embedded slow stoch.:https://invst.ly/q8jiz
ReplyDeleteAt the high so far, SPX C =~ 2(A), ES C =~ 1.618(A)
ReplyDeleteMaybe it wants the top of corrective channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/jpHv8Sn
This would be about the max for the EWO as well.
DeleteRecent up wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/y2cjiQ4
I think we just hit a wave v truncation of the (C) wave up of 4
DeleteLooks like it, overlap with i.
DeleteIt looks like there was a failure wave at the top on the 5 minute.
ReplyDelete