If the entire movement since 2009 is considered as one bull market, as per the chart, below..
https://invst.ly/pv9zf
Then recognize there has 'never' been a monthly close below the log channel. So, a monthly 'close' below the channel - below 2,700 should do it for invalidation.
I doubt this ED will play out... one more high and we will have five waves. More likely to see this one - https://invst.ly/pv79l
It makes more sense to see the indexes with synchronized patterns starting big decline instead of... something unfinished. Look at NYSE you need completed pattern - https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wgKOdmbLx6I/Xkd2vy0vUtI/AAAAAAAAJmw/su7agbTnGQUPDbMLFeCFvYq5C9G67FwcQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/w429-2.PNG
No. I don't think that's right. For indexes to be synchronized, then Jan 17 should be (i) in the $NYA, and it is coming up to make (iii) like the other indexes are.
If the SP500 decline for iv NYSE will not make higher high for iii and if we see higher high next week we have five waves for a different ED. One more pullback and higher again does not fit any more - on NDX is dead already too strong, NYSE makes lower high too weak....
I believe the truncation is correct
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pv61b
Wave iii of (i) is longer in time than i of (i). That would be unusual in a contracting diagonal. Not impossible, just unusual.
DeleteJoe thanks
ReplyDeleteIf a bullish count is intact from 2009 low how could we evaluate a good invalidation level? Or is that something irrelevant ?
If the entire movement since 2009 is considered as one bull market, as per the chart, below..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pv9zf
Then recognize there has 'never' been a monthly close below the log channel. So, a monthly 'close' below the channel - below 2,700 should do it for invalidation.
TJ
I doubt this ED will play out... one more high and we will have five waves.
ReplyDeleteMore likely to see this one - https://invst.ly/pv79l
It makes more sense to see the indexes with synchronized patterns starting big decline instead of... something unfinished. Look at NYSE you need completed pattern - https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wgKOdmbLx6I/Xkd2vy0vUtI/AAAAAAAAJmw/su7agbTnGQUPDbMLFeCFvYq5C9G67FwcQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/w429-2.PNG
No. I don't think that's right. For indexes to be synchronized, then Jan 17 should be (i) in the $NYA, and it is coming up to make (iii) like the other indexes are.
DeleteIf the SP500 decline for iv NYSE will not make higher high for iii and if we see higher high next week we have five waves for a different ED.
DeleteOne more pullback and higher again does not fit any more - on NDX is dead already too strong, NYSE makes lower high too weak....
A new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete