The potential daily diagonal still remains on track. After the higher highs in the future in the overnight session on Sunday, there was a drop in Monday's after-hours session as AAPL provided guidance that the Covid virus might affect it's sales in China.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Potential Diagonal |
The daily RSI is still diverging, and we still need confirmation that wave (iv) is underway. There is still one way that c of (iii) can provide a marginal higher high for (iii). So, if we are in wave (iv) then price should not go over the high tomorrow. Otherwise, there remains room to move wave (iii) to the right.
Ultimately, readers of this blog will recall that one element needed to convince us we are in wave (iv) is to have an overlap on wave (i).
Wave minute ((c)) still remains very near equality with minute ((a)).
P.S. After the close I added this bonus chart of the U.S. Dollar Index. There is a gap around the 100 - 101 level that could fill. And, there is now a higher high than minute ((x)). Note that way the count is described, the Minor B correction took more time than diagonal Minor A, as would typically be expected.
P.S. After the close I added this bonus chart of the U.S. Dollar Index. There is a gap around the 100 - 101 level that could fill. And, there is now a higher high than minute ((x)). Note that way the count is described, the Minor B correction took more time than diagonal Minor A, as would typically be expected.
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| US Dollar Index - Daily Close - Higher High |
This chart uses the principles of degree labeling. Let's see if it makes an accurate prediction of a Minor C wave up.
Have a good start to the evening.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
After the close I added a chart of U.S. Dollar Index.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of the dollar index, what longer term count do you see this ABC as a part of?
ReplyDeleteABC, up, is to(B), up, with the next wave to (C), down.
DeleteThanks for Dollar chart.
ReplyDeleteHere's ES, shouldn't we try to count an impulse until we can't? Degree in this wave is ok I believe and no overlaps.
https://invst.ly/pwbvy
Here's what bigger chart would look like, still hasn't reached Y=W which is impossible with current ending diagonal count
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pwby6
Eric why wxy not 123
DeleteAnd coincides with 3580 target I posted several weeks ago after virus scare. Seems reasonable. If diagonal right it says a lot
DeleteCan't be 100% sure not 123, but imo wxy much more likely bec of business cycle (PMIs etc) and yields topped in Q2 2018 where intermediate 5 likely ended also.
DeleteAnd the amount of stocks > ma 50-200 & 52 week highs is really weak, not signifying a wave 3.
The reason this potential B is so strong is bec some sectors like semis and other tech is still in intermediate 5 imo.
@Erik .. 'leading' diagonals usually, most-often, occur along a bottom and entirely 'inside' of a prior wave. They are usually the 'wind-up-before-the pitch" to a third wave. Ending diagonals usually take place over the prior wave. While I won't say your count breaks traditional Elliott wave rules, what it does is 'transpose' the usual and common function of ending versus leading diagonals. While I can't claim this is 'impossible' (to your word 'can't').. I will say it 'bucks the odds' of Elliott wave counting.
DeleteThanks for mentioning, but it's hard to come up with anything else right now imo.
DeleteI wonder if this "blow of top" count will hold..or if ((c)) morphs into a diagonal.
https://invst.ly/pwpd0
This is the other count I had in mind last when I said that wave (iii) of the diagonal could be extending. That there was 'one way' I could see it being longer in time. There is still plenty-of-time for (iii).
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pwpv3
Not so hard to envision, is it?
TJ
..you'll note that 'all' of the price-time relationships within 'a' are exactly correct.
DeleteET, I believe I heard you say that a triangle is defined by the b-d line, not the 0-b line. With that, I think I missed placing the e wave in the correct location waiting for a more symmetrical triangle and placed to much weight on the 0-b line. This looks to be the correct way to count the triangle in gold.
ReplyDeleteLet me know what you think. Thanks again for all your work.
https://imgur.com/791NjmU
Yes, it is an 'acceptable' way to count a triangle in GOLD. But, so are other counts like a) a larger symmetrical triangle, and b) a barrier triangle.
DeleteThanks for the response.
DeleteYou know that (iii) is longer than (i) right?
ReplyDelete(i) starts at 3075 ES
DeleteES futures gap at 3,388 just filled.
ReplyDeleteYen took a huge dump today, fear trade off. Is it capitulation yet?
ReplyDeleteWould be interesting to see a detailed count on this. I see it in e of a large weekly triangle.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=w1
Please see these two links.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pwpv3
And
https://invst.ly/pwpyj
Notice 'specifically' in the second link, how the wave ((1)) of 3 is less in price than the entire length of brown 1. Typically, most people count the gap as 'three' - which leads to mistakes in timing imho.
TJ
..wave brown 4 'should' alternate with brown 2, and form a higher-high b wave.
Delete..cash and futures went over the high .. 'probably' blue 'b'
Delete..now depends on if red 4 holds
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pwq9y
TJ
..cash now has a lower low than blue 'a' so the 'minimum' flat expectation is met.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pwqqc
TJ
0 - 2 trend line now breaking..
DeleteWith 120+ bars on the chart, the wave 4? in cash currently held the range. If it holds for the over-night, then possible to impulse up.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pwqwc
Thus, I can see a way where a higher high is possible, and one countable way in which it isn't.
TJ
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDelete