It Took Some Noodlin'

Sometimes a wave count comes easily. Sometimes a count really takes some conjuring!

ES Futures - Hourly - Extended Wave x1

Even while I was counting during the heat of the battle I knew we were likely dealing with an extended first wave count x1. But, it was very, very hard to find.

The trick in this case was to think "b" wave. Yes, that failed flat for wave 2 had a very, very long minute ((b)) wave. Then, by the skin of it's teeth, wave 2 overlapped wave 1.

Yet at any of the wave 2 locations (like if you pick the minute ((a)) wave above the current location for 2), then wave 2 is less than a 38.2% retrace. And that means the third wave must be shorter than wave 1. I couldn't find it. I couldn't find it. And that's when the long minute ((b)) wave of 2 came to mind. That minute ((b)) wave is shorter in price and time than wave x1, so it is legal from a  degree labeling standpoint. 

Further, I was looking for a wave 2 that was longer in time than the prior wave minute ((iv)) triangle - so that minor 2 would raise its hand and say, "hi, uh, hello, I am a higher degree wave". This wave 2 location meets that need. Further we needed wave 3 to be entirely below a line from 0 - 2, and while there are several places on the chart that do this, this one fits the bill.

Third, if you plot the hourly Elliott Wave Oscillator - I will let you do this one - then you will find that the wave three maximum is down near than wave 3, and the EWO is coming back nicely for a fourth wave expanding triangle - which three of us found independently during real time. 

But, the wave 4 is quite large, and that most likely means it pairs with wave 2.

I believe the above chart shows that if the wave is to count as an impulse, it must make one more lower low. It turns out that wave 5 can make a new low and remain shorter than wave 3. If not an the invalidation level is back at any wave x1 overlap.

Have a great rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe