Friday, January 4, 2019

Three for Three

Market Outlook: Likely Long Term Top Identified
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Three FED chair persons were interviewed today, and the result, so far, is 'three-waves-up". The three waves up, so far, are: 0 = 2,347, a = 2,521, b = 2,444, and c = 2,538. That's all well and good. We do not know for certain that the up waves are complete. There was not a good clear sign of reversal by the end of the day.

Daily ES prices had another outside reversal day; this one was to the upside. Prices tried to tag the 18-day SMA but just missed it.

If upward movement should end here, then the three waves up 'could' be part still of a minuet wave (iv) triangle. And if upward movement continues, then we'll look for the best count that fits it. Right now, it's a bit of a "wait and see" game.

So, remain flexible, calm and patient.

Have a good start to your evening and to your weekend.
TraderJoe

12 comments:

  1. thanks joe. truly wait and see time. have a good weekend.

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    1. Marc:
      A question on your diagonal chart:
      This would be a leading (A). My understanding is they are either:
      1. 5-3-5-3-5 OR
      2. 3-3-3-3-3
      If correct, then using Joe's w1 (5 waves), this implies that w3 must be 5. We only have 3. The 4th we're in now (assumed) is 4 of 3, not 4 of 5, correct?
      If so, then this couldnt be a leading d. If w1 was actually abc, then possible. But, if w1 was abc, then whose to say its w1 and not "a" (or W)? Then there is no diagonal. A move to 2601 would likely be "a" of abc to larger B.
      Am I missing something here?
      (Sorry, that was more than 1 question, lol)
      Thanks!

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  2. Being flexible and patient are the key. The bears really need to take control soon to keep (iv) on the table...

    As always, thanks for the insight. Enjoy your weekend.

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  3. Being mindful of the location of minuette (1) I would suppose we are looking for a Fib relationship of c to a that is less than 1, such as .618?

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  4. All the count by ET is ok, wave C within (iv) is an expandeded diagonal due to to the economic news

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    Replies
    1. Do you mean an expanded diagonal as a C from 2,347? It would need to go >2565 to validate which would be close to overlap minute ((i))

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. We actually overlaped wave (i), a new count is probably be needed. The expanded C diagonal, in my count, started from ~ 2.400 $ : 1 of C is at 28 of Dec., 2 and 3 on 2nd of Jan., wave 4 at the 3rd of Jan and 5th wave at 4th of Jan.

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  5. Yesterday I posted a gold chart today it didn't let me down like S&P did :( Negative divergence showing up in daily S&P chart now. Patient ET says well I need a stiff drink :)
    Gold could be working at a top would need more time IMHO. Bears watching.
    Link RSI Negative and Positive Divergence it isn't Constance Brown but same info.
    http://www.stock-charts-made-easy.com/positive-divergence.html


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  6. Just out of curiosity, everyone please post a percentage, based on your opinion, if the market will hit a lower low.

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    1. I will guess 75% because companies like Apple and Delta hit lower lows this week.

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  7. EWO hit a new low at the recent bottom on the hourly chart(ie.. no divergence) so I favor new lows and this recent bounce will really catch the bulls.

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