Thursday, April 16, 2026

Reminder: The Principle of Equivalence

This is just a reminder that The Principle of Equivalence suggests that there are two common forms of wave shape that a Minor C wave could take, as diagrammed below. First, Minor C could be a contracting diagonal unto itself as shown on the left.

Minor C Wave - Two Forms

Second, is an impulse C wave with a fifth wave diagonal - as shown on the right. Either of these would work, although the first one might have better alternation with the Minor A wave overall which appeared to be a non-overlapping impulse.

There is, of course, a third much more rare form of an overall expanding diagonal for this wave. But, as of this time there just isn't much evidence for that count. And - because it is more rare - it will be dealt with later, if needed.

With that in mind, The Principle of Equivalence also says that - without any current overlaps to work with - we must also consider these two counts on the four-hour chart on the way up.


Again, we have no overlaps to work off of, yet, and I am following degree labeling here as best as possible.

Have an excellent rest of the day.

TraderJoe

21 comments:

  1. SPY (cash) 15-min: getting some overlaps now, with possible triangle or Flat dimensions to the high. (Triangle loosely sketched; don't blame me if it fails).

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/aVxEdUHr/

    TJ

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  2. ES futures 2-hr: best I've got at the moment using the potential triangle. Yes, the ext. i wave is shorter than (a)/(i), up, so it is legit as a smaller degree wave.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/vr0GeWod/

    TJ

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  3. “This is beginning to get silly. It’s one thing, based on what has happened geopolitically, to have had the S&P 500 price out two-thirds or three-quarters of the wartime damage. But new highs? Come on. Is the market going beyond just discounting the end of the conflict to now pricing in a cure for cancer? This has become more than the market treating the end of the war as a foregone conclusion, but also that it is now back to business as usual, even though the full impact has not been revealed in the economic data.”— Rosenberg Research

    Also, from John Mauldin: liquidity is shrinking as opposed to April 2025 when it was expanding.
    Summary: Higher probability that C won't be able to travel much higher. We shall see.

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    Replies
    1. A Minor C wave could be just what is needed to get everyone "all in" before the top is in. The fact new highs are being printed despite the global situation would make people think the market can never put in a top. In fact, I see that sentiment everywhere on social media.

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    2. Think "Leverage"...smoke and mirrors... 😊

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  4. This post about 'ending squiggles' has the potential to go down in the history books. It is very much related to one of your memorable posts (IMO) of your end of year update in 2024. I've reproduced the link below for the benefit of new readers since then. Go check it out!, it's gold!

    https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2024/12/unparalleled-100-year-fractal-catalog.html

    @TJ The referenced post essentially counted up to wave circle v of 5 of (5) of bigger (5) of multi-decade V. I might be missing some 5s in there. lol....In any case, I'm curious how the rising DJI index since end of 2024 gets accounted for in the count of the last image in that post. In SPX/NDX I believe we're able to have some flexibility because we're operating under a contracting diagonal. But DJI didn't have an overlap, so for learning purposes, how does a previously completed impulse accommodate further waves. The easy answer is that it's just an extension of 5, but I'm curious how you'd fit in the large drawdown on April 2025.

    If you get a chance over the next week or so, would love to be able to see side by side your count of the last image from that post updated.

    I've been reading and occasionally posting on your blog for about 10 years now, thanks for the ongoing discipline in counting and the gems along the way. There are other long term followers here, we should meet one day and put some faces to names. I think we'd get a decent, productive and a fun turnout.

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    Replies
    1. This is how I updated that center section live at the time, being very conscious to avoid degree violations. Overall, wave (3) turned out to be a double zigzag W-X-Y, still in the zigzag family - which both Prechter & I have seen in the third waves of a diagonal, one famous case was in the EuroFx.. It's like an 'extension' in a third wave but remains in the zigzag family. I also commented on that at the time.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/46Vsc02X/

      Wave (4) in the Dow futures definitely did overlap. Looks like you missed a bit with the 'occasional' reads. Lol.

      TJ

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  5. Like TJ, I've been silently following this blog for a few years and have to say, I've learned a lot. Was introduced to EWs in the mid-1980s and actually shook hands with the Great One (Bob Prechter) at a talk he gave. Then, Neely came along and expanded the wave analysis. A perfect marriage of theory and practice.

    Then along came Joe...... explaining it all, with all the cautions and embellishments this method commands. Explaining everything in a way that experts as well as novices can understand and use.

    Would like to thank Joe, as well as all you hard core wave riders for making this lots of fun. Cheers to all.

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  6. I realize the current wave is being counted as a potential 1, but am I the only one thinking this move up has all the earmarks of a terminal wave? Just musing out loud...

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  7. ES 2-hr: due to a slight length violation this morning the earlier suggestion - absent good overlaps - had to be relabeled in this fashion. The first up wave is still shorter than the (a)/(ii) wave, up.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/15T7csP3/

    TJ

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  8. Anybody have a 2 week chart of the ES since the covid low with the EWO. I am having trouble setting up in TOS and the 1 month or the week does not get me the number of candles needed.

    Thank you!

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    Replies
    1. ?

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Ma32Bvq/

      TJ

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    2. Thx so much! I could not get the right number of candles.

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  9. Replies
    1. Why. He is the elliott dude but calling for 9000.

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    2. Because I'm trying to show you that you can do this yourself and don't require some other guru. Is this, below, actually so hard that you can't do it yourself?

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pb1Qqpsd/

      TJ

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  10. Lol, Not the.count i was just talking about his view based on his trendlines.

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    Replies
    1. Draw enuf lines on a piece of paper, and something is bound to hit. TJ.

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    2. Someone sagely opined that the market can remain "irrational" (read " manipulated") longer than traders can remain solvent. Having said that, I suspect we see 5000 before we see 9000.

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  11. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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