Count So Far

The ES/SPY (CFD) futures have declined in the overnight sufficiently to overlap the first wave, i, in a diagonal sequence. Therefore, the appearance is that the diagonal five waves in the futures resulted in five waves in the cash market. The diagonal is shown below in the ES/SPY (CFD) 2-hr chart below.

In the diagonal wave v < iii < i, and wave iv is shorter than ii, with wave iv overlapping wave i. Cash can be counted without overlap.

Now the only questions are 1) the degree of the waves, and 2) is the diagonal leading or ending? With regard to the second question first, it seems atrocious to suggest a leading diagonal this high in the wave count, but the simple fact is that major earnings are still due this week, along with a FOMC meeting. So, I am just keeping an open - but skeptical - mind. Further, there is no announced complete resolution to what is occurring in the middle east.

With regard to the degree of the waves, the question is whether this is a minute degree wave, minute ⓘ, or whether the whole wave constitutes the alternate Minor C which is shown in red. The only way to tell would be if certain levels were exceeded, including the start of the entire wave on 31 March 2026.

Have an excellent start of the day,

TraderJoe