Here is the ES futures 4-hr channel count & the alternate count (in red) to follow The Principle of Equivalence. There are still no good overlaps to play off of. There are, as yet, no sizeable downward waves, and there are not really very good signal bars at the high, yet. The count does its best to follow degree labeling definitions. It may be there was extreme alternation in ii vs iv, with iv being a triangle in wave (a)/(i) instead of a diagonal.
 |
| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Price in a Channel |
I lean towards the blue count as equality has not necessarily yet been reached in the up wave. Further, the $NYAD (NYSE Advance/Decline Line) made another new high today. That needs to be different if any bear market is to begin. I did not fight that signal in the last wave, and I'm not fighting it now. Price is still in a channel, so the up wave looks corrective at this time. That could change, but it hasn't yet.
While the bull/bear survey sentiment data has not gone wildly higher, the Equity Put-Call Options ($CPCE) indicator dropped to 0.41, the lowest for the year and tying the lowest for several years. The five-day moving average is also at a new low for the year. So, this indicator is definitely in the Speculative Zone as a contrary indicator.
Weekly and daily, the ES has hit the upper Bollinger Bands. This is a place where Ira's trading guidance suggests the Smart Money may take at least some profits off the table. So, some stiff pull-backs might be expected soon. Further, the news background remains volatile until more information is obtained. The presence of an inordinate number of gaps in this wave up on the cash charts also give rise to caution and the need for patience and flexibility.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe
Wondering how probative is failure of proposed 3rd wave to break upper channel line. Seems unusual in view of the developing series gaps...of course things could certainly change in that regard.
ReplyDeleteTickers on cnbc are up apprx 10%. It is an error.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: before the open, so far an a-b-c, down. And so far a w-x-y up to 62%. That is the 'minimum' for a triangle, but by becoming w-x-y-x-z, it might reach 78% which is more typical.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cn2EEywu/
The gap close is around 78%, if it can make it that high.
TJ
In the after hours, there is already another high beyond the prior intraday high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Bw9bkNUs/
There may be another way to count this with a longer in time leading diagonal 'a', but we'll see if that comes into play.
TJ
Hope this is not a dumb query but as regards the number of waves, should a TZZ be counted as "five"?
Deletea TZZ 'only' counts as a five IFF its internal measurements satisfy those of a diagonal and if it has the correct form. For a contracting diagonal the measurements are 5<3<1, 4<2 and 4 overlaps 1. For an expanding diagonal the measurements are 5>3>1, 4>2 and 4 overlaps 1 without going below the low of 2. With regards to the correct form: neither wave 2 or 4 can be a Flat. They must be zigzags, or sometimes double zigzags. For a 3-3-3-3-3 diagonal ALL waves must be zigzags or sometimes double zigzags. For a 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal, the 5's are impulses. Additionally, for a contracting diagonal 'usually - most often' waves 1,3,5 make higher highs than the prior impulse.
DeleteOtherwise, the TZZ is just a TZZ, which can be terminal in itself.
TJ.
Thx! Always wondered about that...
DeleteSeveral indices sporting futures gaps higher...a rare sight indeed...!!!
ReplyDeleteSPY (cash) 15-min: just fyi - SPY cash did make it to the 78.6% Fib level. A possible triangle is in play, as is a possible short-term top.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LLG14tyk/
TJ
SPY 15-min: fills gap and overlap warning triggered.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1oklhyoK/
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. A very Taco'ed market.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kd5rlsGq/
No cred.
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) - 1 hr - now back up to 78.6% and a little beyond. I see nothing wrong from a count standpoint if a new higher high is made.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/L5fSHKVY/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ