Why violate degree-labeling definitions when you don't have to? A lot of people that have read this blog are starting to catch on to the idea of what the degree definitions really mean. But a lot of people, either have not, are skeptical, or just don't care a whit enough. So here is a real-life example of violating and not violating degree labeling definitions. And rather than examining your work, I will criticize the work of someone else that was freely published online. This example in the ORCL daily chart comes from Trader's Classroom - which is sponsored by none other than Elliott Wave International (EWI). Here is their chart, clipped from the video.
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| ORCL - Daily - EWI Awful Example |
The first thing that should tip you off that the chart is incorrect that that brown wave (c) in the upper left, which is claimed to be a smaller degree wave, is actually larger than brown Minor 2 which is claimed to be the larger degree wave. This is what is meant by a violation of degree definitions. Note that, overall, the chart has a 'five-count' down. Now review at the following chart.
Now look at this chart starting in the upper left to the lower right. Still a five-count in which we have included the number of candles. But look at the difference in the upper left. Clearly those are very small degree (and actually small) choppy waves that make up a leading contracting diagonal as minute ⓘ. They look-like three-wave sequences, and I actually measured wave (iii) to make sure it was shorter than wave (i). It is - just - but the measurement is shown. Did they measure? I rather doubt it. Did they measure 'any' of the waves in the starting sequence. Again, I rather doubt it.
Now, look at the difference where the Minor labels 1 through 5 are placed. They have Minor 1 way up in the upper left looking very disproportional to the rest of the wave. What evidence for that do they present? None. Absolutely none.
Now look at The Eight-Fold-Path Method. What evidence do I present for the position of Minor 1? Well, it is the first divergence in the Elliott Wave Oscillator (AO or EWO), after the first major trough. It is an impulse of the Extended First-Wave variety, x1.
And what evidence do they present for the location of Minor 2? None. Absolutely none. But The Eight-Fold-Path Method presents the evidence of the first near-return to the zero line for the EWO (black circle on the left). So, the third wave - Minor 3 - occurs on the next trough of The Eight-Fold-Path-Method. And - look'ee there - wave 4 occurs with the EWO crossing slightly back up over the zero line without an overlap in price and all within 145 candles which is well within the recommendation of 120 - 160 candles for The Method. And now note that all of the degree labels are in the correct order from smallest to largest.
Do you see how much easier and more objective wave counting can become if the degree definitions are adhered to? Not only is the overall chart easier to label, but it is much clearer, less confusing, and provides more actual meaning to the count. What is the meaning? The meaning is that "the wave had an extended first wave". This can become critical to later portions of the count - like such a wave is often just the A wave of a further correction.
Well, kids, everyone seems to be doing this. But I am actually getting tired of seeing it. If you want to watch the Trader's Classroom episode for yourself, I'll still do EWI a solid and post it at this LINK because it was they that first taught me to count any waves at all. But why anyone would want to follow their methods with these incredibly obvious errors is beyond me. I have written to them over & over again. They have repeatedly ignored this guidance. They don't care. They are making money on subscriptions. I am not and don't wish to. I may write them a last time, but TBD. I have also warned them that such errors are likely to be encoded in their EWaves software if they don't take particular care to avoid it.
This is the second weekend post, and if you have not read the first one yet, you may wish to.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe


Tj i.am answering here. The es..it trades 24 hr 7 days a week right now its.down 70 points
ReplyDeleteNow about 110 points
DeleteJack, could you provide a quote source, link or reference? The CME futures don't open until 6 PM ET. And I checked the CFD on TradingView. Nothing. Thanks in advance. TJ.
DeleteOK. Got it from MarketWatch:
Delete"Hyperliquid, a crypto platform that is closed to U.S. investors, indicated a sharp drop for the S&P 500 SPX -0.11% and a more than 5% climb for oil CL.1
-0.97%."
I figured it was crypto-related and not allowed by the CME. So, it is not 'really' the ES futures. No way. It's just a 'betting market'.
TJ
Invaluable lesson and greatly appreciated. EWI technicians should NOT be giving trading advice. They suck at it! No serious trader pays them the slightest attention, unless to trade against their call.
ReplyDeleteI don't see alternation between circle ii and circle iv
ReplyDeleteCircle iv is longer in time and more complex.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8BQ86kmh/
TJ
On your count for orcl..I am.with you for the 1 but then I am having hard time counting 5 waves for wave 3 even when I go.to.smaller time frame. Maybe I missed something in my count not to worry
ReplyDeleteMeasure, Jack, measure. Extended fifth.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZxDXoWvq/
TJ
Thanks thats why you are the ew guru not me. I could not have counted that way
Delete