Sunday, April 12, 2026

'Everybody' Does It !

Why violate degree-labeling definitions when you don't have to? A lot of people that have read this blog are starting to catch on to the idea of what the degree definitions really mean. But a lot of people, either have not, are skeptical, or just don't care a whit enough. So here is a real-life example of violating and not violating degree labeling definitions. And rather than examining your work, I will criticize the work of someone else that was freely published online. This example in the ORCL daily chart comes from Trader's Classroom - which is sponsored by none other than Elliott Wave International (EWI). Here is their chart, clipped from the video.

ORCL - Daily - EWI Awful Example

The first thing that should tip you off that the chart is incorrect that that brown wave (c) in the upper left, which is claimed to be a smaller degree wave, is actually larger than brown Minor 2 which is claimed to be the larger degree wave. This is what is meant by a violation of degree definitions. Note that, overall, the chart has a 'five-count' down. Now review at the following chart.


Now look at this chart starting in the upper left to the lower right. Still a five-count in which we have included the number of candles. But look at the difference in the upper left. Clearly those are very small degree (and actually small) choppy waves that make up a leading contracting diagonal as minute ⓘ. They look-like three-wave sequences, and I actually measured wave (iii) to make sure it was shorter than wave (i). It is - just - but the measurement is shown. Did they measure? I rather doubt it. Did they measure 'any' of the waves in the starting sequence. Again, I rather doubt it.

Now, look at the difference where the Minor labels 1 through 5 are placed. They have Minor 1 way up in the upper left looking very disproportional to the rest of the wave.  What evidence for that do they present? None. Absolutely none.

Now look at The Eight-Fold-Path Method. What evidence do I present for the position of Minor 1? Well, it is the first divergence in the Elliott Wave Oscillator (AO or EWO), after the first major trough.  It is an impulse of the Extended First-Wave variety, x1.

And what evidence do they present for the location of Minor 2? None. Absolutely none. But The Eight-Fold-Path Method presents the evidence of the first near-return to the zero line for the EWO (black circle on the left). So, the third wave - Minor 3 - occurs on the next trough of The Eight-Fold-Path-Method. And - look'ee there - wave 4 occurs with the EWO crossing slightly back up over the zero line without an overlap in price and all within 145 candles which is well within the recommendation of 120 - 160 candles for The Method. And now note that all of the degree labels are in the correct order from smallest to largest.

Do you see how much easier and more objective wave counting can become if the degree definitions are adhered to? Not only is the overall chart easier to label, but it is much clearer, less confusing, and provides more actual meaning to the count. What is the meaning? The meaning is that "the wave had an extended first wave". This can become critical to later portions of the count - like such a wave is often just the A wave of a further correction.

Well, kids, everyone seems to be doing this. But I am actually getting tired of seeing it. If you want to watch the Trader's Classroom episode for yourself, I'll still do EWI a solid and post it at this LINK because it was they that first taught me to count any waves at all. But why anyone would want to follow their methods with these incredibly obvious errors is beyond me. I have written to them over & over again. They have repeatedly ignored this guidance. They don't care. They are making money on subscriptions. I am not and don't wish to. I may write them a last time, but TBD. I have also warned them that such errors are likely to be encoded in their EWaves software if they don't take particular care to avoid it.

This is the second weekend post, and if you have not read the first one yet, you may wish to.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe

34 comments:

  1. Tj i.am answering here. The es..it trades 24 hr 7 days a week right now its.down 70 points

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    1. Jack, could you provide a quote source, link or reference? The CME futures don't open until 6 PM ET. And I checked the CFD on TradingView. Nothing. Thanks in advance. TJ.

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    2. OK. Got it from MarketWatch:

      "Hyperliquid, a crypto platform that is closed to U.S. investors, indicated a sharp drop for the S&P 500 SPX -0.11% and a more than 5% climb for oil CL.1
      -0.97%."

      I figured it was crypto-related and not allowed by the CME. So, it is not 'really' the ES futures. No way. It's just a 'betting market'.

      TJ

      Delete
  2. Invaluable lesson and greatly appreciated. EWI technicians should NOT be giving trading advice. They suck at it! No serious trader pays them the slightest attention, unless to trade against their call.

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  3. I don't see alternation between circle ii and circle iv

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    1. Circle iv is longer in time and more complex.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/8BQ86kmh/

      TJ

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  4. On your count for orcl..I am.with you for the 1 but then I am having hard time counting 5 waves for wave 3 even when I go.to.smaller time frame. Maybe I missed something in my count not to worry

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    Replies
    1. Measure, Jack, measure. Extended fifth.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZxDXoWvq/

      TJ

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    2. Thanks thats why you are the ew guru not me. I could not have counted that way

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  5. Please preserve your happiness by focusing on the love and gratitude and admiration of the readership here! Yes your count is much simpler and easier to follow. I used to be a subscriber of EWI decades ago and eventually stopped.
    Thanks for confirming in a prior response that the up wave's length makes it more likely to be impulsive than corrective. Next step a 38-61% correction?
    I do keep in mind that you mentioned the possibility of a shorter C since A was so long. Noted.

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  6. Series gaps to the upside. Significant.

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  7. I can count a clean 5 up off the 3/28 low in DJIA.

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  8. ES/SPY (CFD) 4-hr: this wave has some 'non-stop' or 'too-far, too fast' qualities to it. So, since the futures have cracked 7,000 what if there is a diagonal option like this one. The only requirement is that minuet (a), up, be less in price than the prior minute ⓑ, circle-b, up.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/6ph8W18k/

    Note that minuet (b) down is longer in price than the prior brown ii down, so it may be of higher degree.

    And since, Minor A, up, was an impulse, then Minor C 'can be' a seemingly never-ending and ferocious diagonal. If so, then this minute ⓘ wave would be expected to crack the prior high to express its motive character.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. So, I want somebody to tell me the exact next steps in this count or I won't post it. 1) what do you know about the potential (c) wave, so far? 2) what does that mean?, 3) where can price go? 4) what limits do you see on retraces? All of you can try. I won't be critical. I want all to learn.

      TJ

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    2. TJ I would expect that any upcoming wave three "should" remain shorter than wave 1, a subsequent wave 4 shorter than wave 2, and wave 5 shorter than wave 3.

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    3. ..so far, so good, keep going ... 1) how long can (c) be? 2) retraces? You are doing good so far.. TJ.

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    4. OK. Let me give it a shot. As to how long C can be, I am guessing we can only calculate that after a putative 3 completes and can be measured. Alternatively we could measure the size of wave 3 of the larger structure for a outside limit. Not too sure about retraces other than potential limits to retain diagonal contours. Any ideas from other readers?

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    5. ...technically, you are correct here - which is great - yet keep it simple. What are two common relationships between (c) and (a) ?

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    6. C = A ?
      A-B-C of 5 should be of such length that keeps the proportion of the multiyear diagonal otherwise the diagonal would invalidate and we would switch our focus to a lower probability alternate.

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    7. Is blue 2 circle bigger than ii brown ??

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    8. @Indy .. this issue was addressed in a prior post.

      https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2026/04/can-it.html?showComment=1775751905379#c1469466622465951224

      TJ

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  9. Just fyi - the prior down gap noted in the roll-over futures contract has now been filled.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/HhtnAwwk/

    TJ

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  10. TJ, if (B) was an expanding triangle, isn´t less likely that (C) morphs into an diagonal?
    I think you´ve mentioned that an diagonal right after a triangle isn´t good alternation.
    So regarding the alternation you mentioning btw (A) and (C), maybe (C) will be "fast and short" relativ to (A).

    Thanks,

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    Replies
    1. IF .. then..yes. But (B) breaks the 'rules' for an expanding triangle. Therefore, that count is less likely. And an ending diagonal C wave became a little more probable. TJ.

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  11. SPY - Daily - has gone over the prior ATH, as expected. Looks like Minor C of Intermediate (5) can be underway.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ukzM4sRL/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..because the wave is longer than minute ⓑ, up, then the degrees should be the same or this should be one higher degree. So, likely this is minute ⓘ, up. TJ.

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    2. ..oh, and there are still ways it can continue higher yet. TJ.

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  12. ES - Daily - rollover contract. Also cleared the high of 7,043 on 28 Jan. Not the lead-month only contract yet. TJ.

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  13. NDX on its heels. DJIA so far lagging but will likely catch up if final wave up indeed underway.

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  14. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete