In recent days, we proposed that it was possible a diagonal was forming on the daily chart, as bias had flipped to upwards, and there was a contracting sequence. That sequence is diagrammed below on the chart of the ES/SPY (CFD) in the 4-hr time frame.
Clearly, with tonight's "Pakistan Proposal Pop" entered before the 8 PM deadline, there is now a 5-3-5 sequence upward. Tonight price is still over the 18-day SMA with the bias still positive, although the daily slow stochastic has now entered the over-bought region. And this post is also being made before the 8 PM deadline.
Today in the comments for the prior post, we clearly stated to handle this up wave with care and posted an a-b-c with a strong, clear warning that the 'c' wave could morph into a wave iii given the news background. That happened and more.
Now the question is with the 5-3-5, up, will a non-overlapping fourth and fifth wave form to convert the diagonal into a full-on impulse. That, too, depends on the news, I guess. So, there is no need to get too fancy here. Again, let me be clear, depending on tonight's news, this up wave could fall apart without forming an impulse. But it could just as well add the -3-5 to make a 5-3-5-3-5 impulse.
And that's why one is patient, calm and flexible in the current environment. It is very difficult for retail to flip the switch and/or reverse as quickly as can the news-reading algorithms owned by the big players.
So, have a good evening. Let's see what happens from here.
TraderJoe
From CNN -
ReplyDelete• JUST IN: President Donald Trump said he’d agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday on the condition that Iran agree to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz. Israel has also agreed to the ceasefire, a White House official said.
TJ
Lol! As if Trump and Israel had a choice! I wonder how they will try to spin the forthcoming abject humiliation?(assuming, of course, the honor the ceasefire, hehe!)
ReplyDeleteDid not take long for fissures to appear in the ceasefire deal. Israel is contending Lebanon not part of the deal, Pakistan insisting it is. Do they think Iran's leaders are THAT stupid??!! I knew it...! Likely a 2nd wave unfolding.
ReplyDeleteLooks to me like a ZZ off the lows so far.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 5-min: looks like five waves off the low with alternation. Watch the high and low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yo4fa4lg/
TJ
Cease-fire already violated. Strikes continue. Iran has halted tanker traffic through Hormuz in response. Looks like Mr. Market has not heard. Lol!
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 5-min: "so far" the low has held, and near the close price got near the prior high. There was some acceleration out of channel, but caution still warranted.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RHHSj5t3/
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 4-hr: we now have the possibility of the ivth & vth wave up, in blue.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VkZbvsuB/
The alternate, in red, is that we are still making an expanded flat. But, while possible, it is not required.
TJ
TJ, does this count require blue wave ii to be longer in time and size compared to the lower degree black wave 2? I'm trying to figure out if your proposed count has a degree violation. Thx
DeleteNo, it doesn't. One always counts 'forward'. What you describe is what I call 'counting backward in time'. That's not how waves form, and it is not a degree violation. TJ.
DeleteIf that is confusing to you, let me say it this way. "Wave ii is larger than the prior down wave which is ④". So, ii being larger than ④ is the reason that ii is labeled as the larger degree. One 'always' compares to the prior wave in the same direction, whether up or down", but one does not go 'beyond' that prior wave in the same direction to look for degree violations. So, you don't compare ii to ②. Doing that is what I have termed, "counting waves backward in time". Hope that helps.
DeleteTJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 5-min: here's what I see in the futures off the low. It is currently a 'last chance fourth wave'. I'm ignoring degree here except for relative differences just for illustration purposes. If a higher high is not made by end of day, then maybe it is the ugly red 'b' wave shown earlier on the 4-hr chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XBl6hyl8/
TJ
note: the count is 'cross-checked' by or 'has supporting evidence' from 1) the RSI, 2) the EMA-34, and 3) the number of candles as per The Eight-Fold-Path-Method. So, if the count busts, prematurely, it's not that the analyst is doing anything incorrectly, it's just that the market has a different larger count in mind.
DeleteTJ.
ES/SPY (CFD) 5-min: because the 5th wave crossed up over 78.6%, and did so in a clean non-overlapping 5-waves, I lean towards calling it the fifth wave of the sequence but a slight failure.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TfB9fh7X/
Neely indicates if failures occur, they usually occur over the 78.6% level. So, this qualifies. Still, because there was apparently a truncation, it may be part of the red 'b' wave sequence in the 4-hr chart shown earlier. Of course, one can not 'positively' conclude the 5th wave is over until the 4th wave label is exceeded lower.
TJ
..one should also allow that the fifth wave could be completed in the after hours as long as the length of time of the second wave of 5 doesn't exceed the total length of time of wave 4. That could easily happen because the after-hours are so long in time. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ