Below is the six-monthly chart of the NDX index, in arithmetic scale. The Fibonacci relationships are stunning. Wave (III) is exactly 3.414 x wave (I), and Wave (IV), so far, is 38.2% x Wave (III). The chart allows that for a triangle or a flat. Price may go over the high again - just as it has with AAPL and NVDA. But, for either a regular flat or a triangle price does not yet have to go over the high. It can, but it does not have to. It's another "B" wave scenario.
I used the 13-per EMA because there are only about 65 candles in this analysis. Look at the unexpected contact. Near perfect.
Don't think for a minute there isn't some machine out there somewhere that hasn't figured it out yet. But I have not seen a chart like it, ever, so I thought I'd bring it to you.
This chart was added to this post on Saturday to better explain the local situation. Enjoy.
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| NQ Futures - Daily - Still in Channel |
Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ. "Look at the unexpected contact. Near perfect."- amazinginly perfect. One q though from where the liquidity is coming as neithjer QE running or excess printing? From where the money was pushed in msrket from March 2023? Bond markets?
ReplyDeleteLikely sources of income included 1) the direct payments for Covid-19 relief, 2) savings from not having to commute to work - even today, 3) temporary funds available from not having to make student loan payments and 4) income from vast inheritances as Boomers & Gen-X'er's parents pass on. It is likely that many college students said, "If I bet it all on Nvidia and Apple, I'll make enough to pay off that student debt". I'm just kidding about the last one (not) but these are fundamental questions not EW ones. TJ.
DeleteIn my workplace there are many young twenty somethings who used covid money (and we got a lot of it in California) and savings on their postponed college debt payments to bet on the markets and did well. Telliing stories of crypto riches, and winning bets on options. One young lady bought a $900 Call on Tesla the day befor earnings and sold it for 18k the next day. Stunning. Even my daughter (22 years old at the time) cleared over 2k on a small amazingly timely bet on DOGE coin and Etherium.
DeleteWith nvda at 200x earnings, my guess is C next
ReplyDeleteTj,
ReplyDeleteIn this chart wave II took a long time retraced 75% of wave I.
Wave IV surely isn't over so fast or can it.?
Also there is no trend line touch or break like usually thr pattern in IV
Wave (IV) can be any sideways including 1) flat, 2) expanded flat, 3) triangle. It can travel to the lower parallel. TJ.
DeleteSo we have to see the C wave of 4?
ReplyDeleteWave (IV) can be any sideways including 1) flat, 2) expanded flat, 3) triangle. It can travel to the lower parallel. TJ.
DeleteAs the ponzi gets to far away from the printer line
ReplyDeleteIn the comment section the egos will opine.
Thx TJ for running a tight ship!
A new chart was added to this post on Saturday morning to better explain the local situation. See above. TJ.
ReplyDeleteIndeed!! 😊
ReplyDeleteDon't you think wave 4 is too short by time?
ReplyDelete"Wave (IV) can be any sideways including 1) flat, 2) expanded flat, 3) triangle. It can travel to the lower parallel. TJ." 😊
DeleteWonder if a move to the lower parallel ends November 5th 2024 hmm.
DeleteTj,
ReplyDeleteWhat about Es double zig zag or triple zig zag Diagonal counts.
Is there more room on the upside?
With pull-backs, higher is still possible. Just be exceptionally careful and expect whippy conditions. TJ.
Deletehttps://ninjatrader.com/futures/blogs/futures-trading-outlook-e-mini-s-p-500-shows-bullish-trends/?utm_campaign=edu-nt-us&utm_source=email&utm_medium=marketing_cloud&utm_content=livestream&utm_term=weekly_digest
ReplyDeleteThe key is the mega caps. They have been the ones pushing it all up and they are the ones at resistance with RSI readings in the stratosphere.
DeleteInterest is now moving to cyclicals like F, DAL, CAT, BBY. The Tech meg caps may rest for a while; they don't need to fall sharply. In a bull market, RSI readings can stay high for a long time & corrections tend to be brief. Maybe the Fed lucks out & the regional bank panic in March has slapped inflation down for a year or two.
DeleteI like NVDA, NFLX, META, MSFT, ORCL. I think AAPL is a market performer. AMD is speculative since their MI300 chip is a hail mary effort to get into AI. Tech laggards are GOOGL & AMZN. And TSLA has a couple of tough quarterly earnings reports coming up due to their price cuts (to harass their competitors), but should do well after that.
Did you get the memo that this is a wave counting blog?
DeleteApparently not. What a strange fellow, calling a market with the current internals bullish!
DeleteThe short term bear case (good article):
Deletehttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4612163-bear-market-may-make-surprise-return
@BBRider. Yes, I got the memo. Just trying to be helpful. Sayonara soon.
DeleteThanks TJ
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min : hits 1.618 extension, with 3rd wave gap. Might only be for diagonal so be cautious about whippy conditions.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fnfBB0QZ/
TJ
SPY 15-min: now beyond a three = 2x one, and slightly below 78.6%; try a parallel but do not be fooled if it breaks significantly as we can still be a in a triangle or diagonal until below the prior low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VXWgTmx5/
TJ
Hello Tj,
ReplyDeleteWhippy 3rd wave down?
SPY 5-min: now if you take SPY out to 5-min to get the 120+ candles you see what 'might' be the fourth wave signature at/above the zero line on the EWO.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3kh1EQ5v/
Price is already past the 23.6% Fib; let's see if the 38 - 50% Fibs and gap resistance hold it or not. If not, maybe a diagonal as it is hard to find the iii of 3 bump in the EWO.
TJ
5 waves impulse?
ReplyDeleteNothing is holding for now.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: just fyi, if the local high holds, then a 5 = 1 could make a new low. I would put a wave-counting-stop over the 13:20 high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bc1HVZQ1/
TJ
What are the odds that we see some acceleration, 5 > 3 > 1 ?
ReplyDelete'possible', can not rule it out, and if we do get a :5 there can be a 'c' wave after it. TJ.
DeleteSPY 10-min: try to be a bit patient here. Note the red arrow in the circle on the left side of the chart. Note it about the same height as iv.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/htOLFxmd/
There are some additional notes on the chart.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ