ES daily futures were lower during pre-market trading today. Cash opened with a gap down, and only three waves down were recorded before a 38 - 50% retrace wave which could be a fourth wave.
Patience caution and flexibility were again urged today because it was easy to tell in the last hour that some machine (or perhaps many) were fighting tooth-and-nail to avoid making an impulse lower. A wave-counting-stop and some additional observations were placed on the intraday SPY 10-minute chart in the comments for the prior post. It is possible a gap-down fifth wave could form tomorrow, and then reverse quickly. But, there is no guarantee.
The slow stochastic on the daily chart remains embedded above the 80 level, and the daily bias remains up.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Joe I use to subscribe to Neely. I recent got an email from his service stating the bear market is over and a new bull market started in June. I would be curious to know your thoughts on this if you have one. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteSam
I have this curiosity from last November with more doubt in January as SPX turned up after touching 50 month sma in Oct- November 2022.
DeleteIMHO long term count is Primary 2 (P2) of Cycle 3 (C3) bottom at 3492 on Oct 13th, 2022. Major [1] of Primary 3 (P3) of Cycle 3 (C3) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) should target 4700-4800 around dec 2023(approx. 38% increase from oct 2022 low ) and then 50% correction till 4200 for Major[2] around Oct 2024. Only exception was 2009 where 50month sma did not hold for long time.
Also this is long term perspective and not much helpful in trading daily.
This analyst currently manages his trading by a system of trends and indicators that he calls "neely river" and does not use counted neowaves to trade. But he still sells the wave analysis service (not elliott but neowaves rules). And he talks about wave formations that are not in his book or have his rules clearly documented. All a bit suspicious.
DeleteBut different factors (HFT, more short-term speculation with derivatives than real positions in shares, 0dte...) have made the wave theories stressed and it is difficult for everyone.
@Sam .. will try to answer better on the weekend. Short-term focus is needed at the moment. TJ.
DeleteLooks like we get that lower low...
ReplyDeleteLooks like we got a (little) a-b-c 4th wave in SPY to 1 pm yesterday, then i - ii of wave 5 to EOD. In QQQ, looks more like (little) i-ii-iii-iv-v to 3:30 pm, with little v topping around where little iii topped. An almost failed 5th?
ReplyDeleteIf so, today we should open down fairly hard, little iii of (v) for SPY. So will (v) == (i)? Or will it extend? Stay tuned.
SPY 10-min: here is the gap down, watching to see if a new low forms (may need a fourth before the fifth).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NtfdvuYm/
TJ
SPY 5-min: there is the new low. The equivalency is now gone. It's a five-wave impulse move, and benefit of The Eight-Fold-Path-Method has been shown live.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/g1ufaPPp/
TJ
SPY 15-min (or 30 min) - because there were 178 candles on the 5-min chart, we now move out to the SPY 15-min or 30-min chart, label the ① - ⑤, and label the low as another a = i. Since, we are looking for a wave (iv) likely, we might expect only a first a-b-c down, the a would be today's low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/s8svpEIP/
Because wave ③ is 2x ① (i.e. greater than 1.618), it is the extended wave, and is labeled with an 'x'. Double-extended waves (waves that contain two extensions) tend to be more rare.
TJ
minor new lows could be made by 1) a diagonal in ⑤, or 2) a Flat wave or extended flat wave, or 3) a running triangle for the next b wave. TJ.
DeleteGenerally the price movement by bots in indices is pretty much standard throughout US and EU. Crypto is totally an exception and don't know from where it gets liquidity.
ReplyDeleteVIX hitting February 2020 low. I believe but not certain VIX futures expire today?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/n4FXPJUP/
My continued attempt at SPX 1HR. AO now with a few bigger bars under the zero line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gTk3UT3k/
SPY 15-min: there is definitely now an expanded flat wave off of the low with correct measurements.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CnqHGh5D/
It could go further or form another (larger) flat since this is a 3-wave sequence. For a larger flat, it would need to go back down to 90% of the low.
TJ
SPY 15-min: break of diagonal trend line. Might try for the prior low or a new low for a larger expanded flat.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/n9x77RAL/
TJ
Just in case anyone is interested: Not a wave counting site
ReplyDeletehttps://www.pringturner.com/2023-summer-client-event-summary/
Seems like futures es making ld
ReplyDeleteRsi way too low on ES mid time frames. Impulse 1 maybe be finished
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: yesterday after the first 'flat' wave at magenta 'a', the market struggled to make 90% downward by the close. It didn't and stayed a few ticks from 90%. Now in the overnight, prices got down to 138%. Looking at time it is still less.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nMeBZaTb/
While this can now be the 'b' wave of a larger complex flat, it might morph into other things. The key issue is that the cash market is not yet even open. Sometimes overnight waves are parts of 4, b, x, 2, 3.
TJ
ES 15-min: five-waves-up from the low as an expanding diagonal. Will try to show chart soon. TJ.
DeleteES 15-min: here is the chart of the diagonal from the low. (Not fully complete on this chart).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5piJLKUc/
TJ
It formed at, and held, the daily pivot point (PP) from the ES 30-min wave-counting-screen. Now it requires answering the question will the low hold in a second wave of a 'c' wave up? TJ.
DeleteVix should wake up today / tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteFrom a long period of slumber!
SPY 15-min: the first gap down from the low has been filled. In a large retrace it is 'possible' the other two 'could' fill with varying odds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Z1LKgycB/
TJ
ES 15-min: new high of day. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 15-min: degree labeling does support the nested count option with -ii at 62% as follows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xDxQKQvh/
TJ
P.S. there may eventually be a way to wrangle a diagonal out of it subject to wave lengths. More waves needed to draw that conclusion. TJ.
DeleteES 15-min: there is now a shorter upward wave (in price length), and clear downward overlap. The nested count has to hold 4403 by degree labeling. The overlap is where the diagonal potential comes from. Even better for the nested count if the upward parallel holds first. Baseline parallel shown on chart.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QBXjNUZJ/
TJ.
ES 15-min: further higher high into the cash close. Nothing ruled out yet.
DeleteTJ
ES 15-min: if you're going to follow this into the after-hours, here are some chart notations. Currently, the diagonal is legal and 'might be' a 5-3-5-3-5. The diagonal count is in red. The nested count is in black.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AAx8STb9/
The nested count has both a warning and a "hard stop" in terms of degree labeling. The EMA-13 and EMA-34 have been added to the chart.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ