Higher High Day - 2

Today did make a higher high, and the completed upward impulse is shown on the SPY 15-min chart, below. Price then broke down under the channel, and rebounded to back-test the channel twice. There was then a down leg that failed to make a new lower low. And, at the very end of the session price bounded up to the underside of the channel again.

SPY Cash - 15 min - Tails at Prior Wave ④

 

The resulting structure is currently indeterminate. It could end upward travel in this area to make a 5-3-5 down from the high of i / a with a lower low tomorrow. Or, it could be all of ii / b, down at the prior wave ④. Or the up wave could go over the high marginally to make a flat or an expanded flat that would travel back to or under that prior wave ④.

There's no set of market metrics I know of except the full order book (which is kept by the brokers and their machines) which can really help better define the probabilities. One might say the down wave is quite short-in-time and that is a reasonable statement to make. But, the uncertainties are still high enough to warrant caution.

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe