The two-daily chart of SP500 closing prices is below. The Elliott Wave count is reduced to its simplest terms for the overlapping waves shown.
Don't get confused by a lot of hype or attempted overly precise market technical analysis. The two counts shown (y) / (iii) are equivalent by The Principle of Equivalence until they are not. The recent higher high might be occurring on a MACD divergence but that is not proved yet. There is also nothing conclusive that the current up wave is over. That is, there are still ways to count smaller degree waves higher. The wedge lines can be redrawn when we know where the wave structures terminate.
As we have said for weeks it is possible to form either a contracting diagonal or just a double (or triple) zigzag in this area with this wave structure. Patience, calm and flexibility is the name of the game in the summer trading scenarios.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe
Thanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteA 45 point difference in Es mini June and September contacts. Never seen such a difference so near to ending on contract on June16th. Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteWhat's a matter? You don't like paying 1% more than something is worth? Lol.
Delete52 week high for Spx. Tomorrow inflation report may propel the markets.
DeleteSP500 1-Hr: a count like this is 'plausible' not perfect. The alt count is that the high is still wave ③ with another dip and another high to go. The "alt" would agree more with the EMA-34.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bcb8h2rZ/
TJ
What about NDX
ReplyDeleteas best I can tell..
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Sn1hUZGX/
assume higher until the magenta channel breaks is back-tested and the back test fails (not trading or investment advice .. just a wave count).
TJ
Tj, Anyway to count as ABC? Of ending diagonal?
DeleteStill likely needs (iv) and (v).
DeleteTJ
NDX still in iii
ReplyDeleteOne more high, to the top
ReplyDeleteDon't you think spx is canal and not wedge?
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: watching this structure; either a 'b' wave or a potential diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9caT7B3M/
TJ
In real-time, there is now a higher high. Marginal, but it is there. Can go a bit further if it wants. TJ>
DeleteI still am on we are in a large ES triangle, c of B is the current location. I think it wants the .786 retrace from the ATH.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: a five wave pattern (or tzz) has been confirmed. Watch below 4,407, as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Xqe9nO3O/
TJ
..now well below 4,407. TJ.
DeleteES 5-min: the complete retrace of the pattern would be at 4.381.50 in the SEP ES.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gq3J6elJ/
TJ
Thanks Tj, Have long term count on SPX changed ? The expectation is Fed not increasing interest rate tomorrow with todays data and June 16th is es contract ending.
ReplyDeleteYes looks it has. Weekly charts of Tj will give us a better view on this.
ReplyDeleteUpdate on large triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/qJ59iWM
ES 30-min: just a reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen. ES had a new high in the overnight. Price is now again above the intraday 18-per SMA in real time. Some times FED days make good fourth waves, with a higher high after the big banks know what the FED decided.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/SkJmULic/
TJ
ES 30-min: upper fractals exceeded higher.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/y50vpJyo/
TJ
NDX go out of the canal?
ReplyDelete(From CNBC)
ReplyDeleteFEDERAL RESERVE
Fed holds off on rate hike, but says two more are coming later this year
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/14/fed-rate-decision-june-2023.html
TJ
There you have it. Subprime is contained!!
ReplyDeleteTj,
ReplyDeleteWeird moves on Nasdaq.
Or is this normal for this wave?
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ