In these blog posts I often speak of the need for patience, calm and flexibility. It's summer. It feels lazy. Is it possible to quantify the patience one might need to be prepared for in a move? Here is that daily chart of the NQ 100 futures again.
Note that wave B/2 took close to 25 days to complete from crest to trough. Now look at wave (ii). It took nearly 15 days from crest to trough. And a key characteristic of wave (iv)'s is that they take a lot of time. So, one might expect wave (iv) to consume 15 days or longer, and to possibly go over the high again in so doing.
That's a lot of patience.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
@manu .. please see these lines in the disclaimer, "Do not post links here to paid sites - your own or others. Do not post links here to your own blog. DO NOT post trading signals from your trading system." Please observe these items. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSure. I was just trying to learm different school of thoughts in EW. If possible
Deleteplease provide me your email so I can discuss thr.
@manu; sorry that falls into the category of personal mentoring which I do not do for free. You can ask a 'specific' question here, where all can learn and contribute in public if you want. TJ.
DeleteAll of this is reminiscent of the .com mania. This AI that we are talking about so much is not the holy grail that many believe and in many cases, they are simply powerful and fast electronic systems but that they have little or no intelligence. Time to time to deflate this new bubble.
ReplyDeleteThanks Joe for your work. Lack of patience is possibly one of the main causes of many mistakes in trading. I have to remind myself very often.
ReplyDelete"AI" rhymes with "A lie":
ReplyDeletehttps://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/27/business/chat-gpt-avianca-mata-lawyers/index.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65202597
What about the vix? 12-10?
ReplyDeleteVIX broke 5 year uptrend line, where she stops no one knows. Most likely the VIX Call sellers need to get burned badly (over and over), but notice it takes time for the VIX to heat up, it could take weeks of testing the next low. https://www.tradingview.com/x/MeExjVSy/
DeleteHi Tj,
ReplyDeleteWhat is the lowest point this wave iv can travel down to, in Nasdaq.
overlap with (i) is the limiting 'rule'. 38 - 50% of (iii) is the guideline. 62% on 'rare' occasions. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: why I discussed 'patience' being needed. SPY 5-min after three-waves-down is at 90%+ and can qualify for flat, expanded flat, barrier triangle, etc.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qCvj1RRt/
TJ
SPY 5-min: now back down to EMA-34, and with two levels of overlap (OL #1, OL #2).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wr42d9fc/
This at least argues for monitoring the high. Keep in mind overall fourth waves can get very, very testy.
TJ
It's hard to help those who will not see. Yes, the market gets ahead of itself from time to time; yes, there will be corrections. But AI is advancing at an accelerating rate and it's now at the point where it's quite useful in many contexts -- military, health care, homeland security, risk management, writing, coding, trading, etc. Over time (years), QQQ will outperform the S&P 500 significantly. AI is currently very expensive to implement, which is why the big cap tech companies are doing well. But many tech companies are working hard to bring down costs & expand access (e.g. www,modular.com). If they succeed, the benefits of AI will spread over time to mid-sized and small-cap companies.
ReplyDeleteBacking off to ES 30-min: reminder to mark the fractals on the wave-counting-screen. The prior down red fractal has just been hit.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0GV6zGUO/
TJ
Here is the undercut of that prior fractal low (chart is delayed the usual 10-min).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Jl1gSdA1/
TJ
New link:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/X57TOy6e/
TJ
Possible Diamond triangle it seems...
ReplyDeleteOr suppose it was 1999.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: next down (red) fractal back has been undercut with price at S1.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/m84GGlro/
TJ
SPY 5-min: back to the short term for a minute. SPY and ES have a "wave in a wedge" which could prove to be a diagonal subject to certain price limits. Keep your eye on it.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/afND8HjU/
TJ
SPY 5-min: price is now up and over the upper wedge line, and a contracting diagonal with the proper measurements has been validated.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2WfunQFL/
TJ
SPY 5-min: looks like a possible flat after the diagonal. Might pop up in the overnight or tomorrow.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/lAqb1LaE/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ