Today was likely a thrust from a slightly longer-term triangle and then a gap-fill on the SPY 2-Hr cash chart, below. The wave-counting-stop from the ES 4-Hr chart was hit today and exceeded. And the prior gap was filled.
There is now likely a 5-3-5 under construction at minimum. It could turn out to be more. The day closed with price over the 18-day SMA, so the bias has turned up. The prior high on this chart, and the upper daily Bollinger Band have thus become local targets unless the up move fails. There is nothing (overlaps, diagonals, etc.) that says the up move is necessarily over.
However, the algos are making a real mess of the wave structure. For example, in the above chart the triangle's proportions are 90 - 98% which is exceptionally odd but legal. And it is unclear if today's gap was actually inside of the triangle or not. There is a way to see that way from a degree-labeling point of view.
A bit more wave structure is needed to better define the longer-term daily count. The downward pointing larger daily triangle and the upward pointing contracting diagonal are still both on the table. At some point one of these options will invalidate. It just hasn't as of today's close. So calm, pateience and flexibility are still needed until there is better clarity.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ.
ReplyDeleteI am not able to see "There is a way to see that way from a degree-labeling point of view." Nor able to mark a triangle. Can you explian a bit.
It's too complicated for a note, but basically you can move the Ⓔ in the above diagram over one bar to the right in a slight failure. The up wave is so long in price without retrace that the sub-waves don't make sense in terms of being of smaller degree extensions. So, it likely means today's up wave is related to the large up wave 'before' the triangle. TJ.
DeleteCan you tell Us about NDX?
ReplyDeleteI covered the NQ 100 futures in this post of 28 April.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/04/only-in-nq-proximity-to-1618.html
Since then the update is that the NQ has reached the 1.618 level, and is now trading near the upper Bollinger Band which is a place where (according to Ira Epstein's Trading Guidelines) 'the Smart Money' often takes some profits off the table. (Not trading or investment advice - just a recap of what Ira teaches).
TJ
Isn't it always sure from last 100 years that the US will not default then why such a hype? To propell the markets up?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/PUL8xFM
ReplyDeleteI am thinking on the daily barrier triangle idea we need one more wave down for the e but I don't know how many times the market can knock on that horizontal resistance and the door not be opened.
DeleteThanks
ReplyDeleteTJ, Can an e wave of a triangle be a triangle itself?
ReplyDeleteI found it and yes it can, bottom of page 49.
DeleteHere are those two options.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/tHS8up3
Weekly /ES just below the 100ma
ReplyDeleteRegarding the daily triangle option (http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/05/the-daily-triangle-option.html), the B wave undercut the (A)/(1) by approx. 137. Subtracting 137 from the A wave high of 4327.50 leaves 4190.50 for a possible C wave high if the triangle is playing out.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: wave-counting screen. The 30-min chart does have downward overlap. Watch the slow-stochastic and the fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dtRUaIB2/
TJ
ES 30-min: lower low than noon low. Structure is funky. Might be building a diagonal. More later... TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: the break of the slow stochastic below the 79 level did correctly indicate a return to the 18-per SMA. See chart update below (chart is behind the usual 10min).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TMLTh2LN/
I should mention this version of the intraday wave-counting-screen is RTH hours only. I am experimenting to see if increased volume of the RTH session makes the chart even more reliable.
TJ
Thanks for the RTH view. It aligns better with SPY.
DeleteI think e was a triangle. What a curve ball.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ