The other chart I will post for this question is the following one. What happens if one considers just the 'close-only' data for the Dow? Then, we see the following Expanding Diagonal emerges with the correct lengths of waves, and the typical expanding pattern on the Elliott Wave Oscillator.
And 5 > 3 > 1, and 4 > 2, and 4 overlaps 1. And 4 is longer than 2 in time, too. But, while this seems like cheating, it must also be still recognized that it could just as well be three zigzags downward. So, this is kind of a 'pick-yer-poison' situation, But another point to consider is that an important low really hasn't been taken out yet. Nor is there yet a low below 5 or Z. And that is what seems to allow the failure fifth option from the prior post, as well.
Again, I want to re-emphaisze I am well-aware that this count simply does not work if intraday bars on futures are used to pick the terminal points of the waves.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
ES 30-min: now back to the 'daily' 18-day SMA at 4,155, and 4,157 is a 1.618 extension of the prior down wave. Can go further if it wants.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Here is the chart of the daily ES "back to the line-in-the-sand".
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AXwpDxrP/
TJ
joe - in the following alternate in red, it is irrelevant that 0-2 line is broken in red 3 ? And see the red line below prices (the alternate count in this post) https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2022/01/long-term-wedge-has-clearly-broken-down.html
ReplyDeleteA fifth failure plays into these scenarios. It could still happen in the SP500 with the alternate red diagonal shown in the main chart in this post in the Dow. It could still happen with a similar diagonal in the SP500.
I'll re-emphasize these charts were developed in January 2022, over a year ago. They are what keep me calm, flexible and patient.
Joe
Reply
Reply to same question yesterday about 0 - 2 trend line.
DeleteElliott_TraderMay 23, 2023 at 7:58 AM
True. That is a Neely guideline, and the EWP never stated that as a 'rule'. IF we are in the latest stages of the advance, how is one to know if it applies 'hard & fast' or not? We've not been here before. TJ.
My idea of a barrier triangle on the ES daily look dead. To many counts for me to feel great about taking any position. I shall fish and watch.
ReplyDeleteIndeed! My EWT skills have always been mediocre at best Nonetheless, don't think I have ever seen a more intractable market. They say HFTAs now move more volume than human traders!
DeleteWhen intraday wave counts are difficult, the Bollinger Band solution can point to levels. With price below the line-in-the-sand it would not be unexpected for the algo's to take a trip to the lower band.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tGicdyJs/
It's like using 'two tools'. Like a hammer vs a screw driver. At times you just need to get things done, and so you use the best tool at the time. Can things be whippy? You bet.
TJ
Great advice! Watching over- head gaps has also been a very useful tool.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: with the EWO above zero and a 78.6% upward wave, traders might watch for one of the patterns shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1NHj5H6x/
TJ
78.6% has been hit on the downside. It can go lower to form a barrier triangle or diagonal. I'm just saying 'at least' 78.6% has been hit.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4PJDBgUJ/
TJ
Gap at 4189.10 food for thought. Price will overlap a potential wave 1 down if it is filled. Could be 1,2,3, abc delineation perhaps...?
ReplyDeleteWave counting stop was hit; could still be a flat / expanded flat wave. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: now can be counted something like this.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zlOo1WoS/
TJ
SPY 5-min: there should be a new divergent low. There is lots of downward overlap.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9g0AsJF0/
TJ
SPY 5-min: first five-waves-down, move wave-counting-stop to the high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ww26hwj9/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ