Here is the daily chart of the NASDAQ 100 futures (NQ). The point of this chart is that any "ending" wave, whether it is a number 5 wave or C wave or part of a 3 wave, should be a five-wave sequence.
From this timeframe I just see three-waves-up to (iii) from B/2. That means there should be a (iv) and (v) to go, even if this wave in the channel is a C wave - which ends the NQ expanding diagonal.
As the statement on the chart says, this wave up from B/2 is already longer than the A/1 wave. A further point of note is it would be very dodgy to suggest downside until the lower channel line is broken, back tested and there is a failure of that back test. A further clue to a turn would be if wave (iv) formed a triangle before the last wave or not.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend and holiday.
TraderJoe
Tj,
ReplyDeleteThat also should push S&P500 much higher then.
Weekly charts of S&P500 I thought was bearish till Nasdaq changed everything!
The amount of the effect may differ by index. TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj. With this chart outlook on spx becomes bullish and(v) will be beyond or aroungmd 4800. The march low in spx isn't a 50% retrace. Confused wd es and spx chart.
Delete@manu, no. I didn't say anything about bullish or bearish. You are making things up for some reason. Look at this chart and look where price is relative to the upper Bollinger Band.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8ai0M7p9/
What 'usually' happens when price gets to the upper band and the daily slow stochastic is only in over-bought territory and not embedded? Don't make stuff up. Look at what 'is' there.
TJ
I was reading the post" That means there should be a (iv) and (v) to go, even if this wave in the channel is a C wave - which ends the NQ expanding diagonal." The weightage of tech stocks is high is SPX and therefore in general indices should work together unless (iv) is done and we may have a failed(v) in NQ. Was not suggesting bearish or bullish.
Delete@manu ..your post noted 4,800 when the S&P is 4,240! And you said, "SPX becomes bullish..". TJ
DeleteTj..I am a student here and learning. I was just referring an analogy to spx by saying"with this chart outlook" to your chart in this post. Nothing to offend you or blog here.
DeletePersonally over the years i have learnt investment is better than trading as human emotion quotient comes in play. A 50 month MA spx is very good indicator with fibnocci. If you allow i can post a chart which is not mine.
Tj,
ReplyDeleteIf Dow had a truncated 5th.
Shouldn't all indices align sometime in the same way?
Plot the Dow v Spx from 1999 to 2001. Look how long it took for them to get in gear.
DeleteCan't the (C) wave (where your (III) is) comprise a three way move that ends in five waves So your (I) is (A), (II) is (B), with final move to (C) in five waves to complete C.
ReplyDeleteWe could open tomorrow with a surge ('the debt deal is done!') to your 'iii' peak. But that was mostly already discounted last week. So then we could back & fill for a few days & maybe sell off some ('will Congress actually approve the deal?') -- your wave 'iv'. Then another lesser surge ('Congress finally approved it') to your wave 'v' peak.
ReplyDeleteThen we have to deal with the fact that the inflation readings over the past two weeks have been rather hot. So maybe the Fed will surprise the market June 13-14 with another rate hike. That could provoke a 2 - 3 week correction ('we were blindsided!'). Those few weeks to the downside could set up a nice summer rally abetted by cash inflows in early July.
That was your triangle scenario, was it not? We are near point C, point D comes quickly in late June, point E in late July or early August.
Sorry, should have put parens around 'iii', 'iv', 'v'.
DeleteA triangle scenario is getting quite stretched, but still possible only in the ES/SPX. A diagonal became a bit more likely this week. TJ.
DeleteGood confluence of Fibonacci retracements on QQQ 78.6 $380 and 161.8 at 372. Wait and see when it breaks.
ReplyDeleteThis Buds for you well maybe not just yet. Could take some time for a base to form as price moves toward 61.8% retracement.
When we a pull a rubber band to extreme, it will snap. Same looks for Nvidia n Nasdaq.
ReplyDeleteWhen the turn around happens, will be very sharp!
Good morning all. This is already a legit expanding diagonal in the SPY cash 2 Hr. Wave ⑤ can go further, but has already done the minimum.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Fk1gDTSX/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: meanwhile in the hourly futures the overnight gap is already closed on the real time chart (this one is delayed).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RxvRMXMW/
There is always the possibility of another larger wave ④ as the result of a flat, as shown, and perhaps one more new high. But, there is already divergence on the hourly RSI.
TJ
Here is that ES 60-min gap closing.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7xdItOyo/
TJ
SPY cash - gone red on the day, so far. TJ
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: this is about what the alternate red ④ would be about in length. Much below 4,195 and the odds of the larger fourth wave start dropping pretty quick.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/SA1ZxrhD/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ