Volume dried up a bit in front of tomorrow's CPI report. Prices moved sideways-to-lower for the day. The pattern could be a triangle, or devolve into a Flat, or even further into an expanding diagonal lower. The SPY cash 30-minute chart shows it well enough. Today's opening gap down was not filled in the cash session.
The Elliott Wave Oscillator went below the zero line this morning. Tomorrow's CPI report and Thursday's PPI report may help better define the price movement.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/cpi-inflation-april-2023.html
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: CPI came out "as expected". After an initial overnight drop, prices are back into yesterday's range. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES has "popped the top" with a new higher hourly high over the 4,163.25 level,
Deleteand all without a single print in the cash market.
TJ
Difficult markets. Grinding higher from March 13th with shallow dips.
DeleteES 1-Hr: It has a bizarre look to it because of the timing of the CPI, but it does work. (Chart is behind)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VL0tA0TE/
Real-time cash showing a slightly better picture.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/sR7rvs9E/
It is almost closing its gap.
TJ
..futures, so far, remained inside of 2.62 x a.
DeleteTJ
Interesting that Nasdaq has exceeded its 2/2 high.
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: opening gap closed.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3l1AWAoH/
TJ
Hanging around line in the sand for many days now.
DeleteDow 30 ---Outside day down----so far---SPX---NAZ also have OD"s---up at this point.
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: currently at 4,026 needs to get below 4,112.50 make a larger expanding diagonal lower. It already has a new lower low. TJ.
ReplyDeleteOn SPY cash 4-Hr: might be of benefit to try to sketch in a temporary channel, and put today's high in as a 'wave-counting-stop'. Eventually, if there is a third wave (say a diagonal downward is made, and a retrace stays under today's high), then such a third wave 'should' break the lower channel boundary lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AXyXo32i/
It just might be 'back-and-forth' for a while as the news reports come out and are reacted to. In any event, for a nested down count, today's up wave should not be broken. If it is broken, then the count is not nested (i.e. not 1,2,i,ii..), and it would have to be a larger second wave that we would deal with at that time.
TJ
ES 4,112.50 'has' now been exceeded lower, an expanding diagonal five-wave-sequence is now valid. Can go lower if it wants.
ReplyDeleteHere is the equivalent in the SPY cash 5-min chart (until the futures chart catches up).
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4zaWtsUV/
TJ
I am not showing four larger than two on the es.
DeleteYes, the ES and MES produced different results. Something to be on the watch for. TJ.
Deletefoiled breakdown is bullish. gap at 4220 on spx and weekly BB area
ReplyDeleteSPY 4-Hr cash. Here is the updated chart as of the cash close. "Deep retrace" so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eid587zF/
TJ
Very difficult markets around 18sma. Mornings bear trap and afternoons bull trap. Seems the run is over from March 13th.
DeleteES Daily, reminder: since yesterday was an outside day 'up', if the low is taken out in the next two trading sessions (Thursday or Friday) then instead of a continuation up for the bulls, it would be considered a trap for the bulls, with a target of the lower daily Bollinger Band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/SqZzX1C3/
TJ
SPY cash 4-Hr: and a reminder to keep an eye on the temporary channel. So far, so good. Another gap opening lower, with still a small of gap above and a large gap below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4TnwiYOu/
TJ
ES 30-min: while we are waiting on some resolutions, here is a reminder of the ES intraday wave-counting-screen with 1) Bollinger Bands & 18-per SMA, 2) 100 per SMA, 3) Slow Stochastic, 4) Williams Fractals and 5) Daily Pivot Points (Classic Calculation).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/SEZnCDcp/
Note that are 4 consecutive closes outside of the lower band. This begins to reduce the odds to about 1 - 2% of another consecutive close outside of the lower band.
From an EW perspective, today's second down wave was 1.618x the first one.
TJ
Thanks. I was just checking out the Williams % - they do seem better than using the MACD to me. Nice indicator.
DeleteFor weeks, I mostly thought / said it is just down to this 139 pt game m/t. IMO, break up, a good shot at .62 - 4325 area (double bottom pattern). Break below 4048, (H&S pattern) quickly ring up the sweet 3910 area :)
ReplyDeleteThe chop won't stop
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ