As measured by the daily ES futures, today was an 'outside day down'. It had a higher high, a lower low and a lower close than the prior day. See chart below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Outside Day Down |
The high occurred against the combination of the 100-day SMA and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The outside day down means that today's high should not be taken out in the next two days or it might constitute a trap for the bears.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the high occurred where it should have - following a triangle (see yesterday's post) - and it only made a slight new high which might indicate that it was the last wave up in this wave sequence. That remains to be proven, yet. So, it is 'possible' the ES has it's minute ((b)) wave here, and that would coincide with a 78.6% retrace for the minute ((b)) wave on the Dow futures.
Signs of the down trend resuming in earnest would include a break, back-test, and subsequent failure of the up trend line from the lows on the 4-hr chart (or daily, as above). That has not happened yet.
Note that the daily slow stochastic is still embedded. However, tomorrow is the FOMC decision and press conference that follows.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Hello Tj
ReplyDeleteDoes nt ((b)) wave need more time to complete? Or that is not a requirement?
It is not required by a 'rule' to take more time. But it can. For example, if the above wave is counted as (w)-(x)-(y), then it 'could' add -(x)-(z) to take more time. If it does that, though, then likely the Dow gets beyond 78%. So, just stay open-minded on this one. As I said more than once, "counting this one will be a mess, precisely because this is supposed to be a 'B' wave, and they are the most difficult to count." Further, 4 hr channel is not yet broken to the downside, back-tested, or failed yet. TJ.
DeleteLower channel is being tested.
DeleteWould not be surprised if this is just a b wave after yesterdays impulse down.
DeleteEach high since 3502 is getting weaker in the channel. Turning to the right as you say TJ.
SPX 2-Hr: cash now just breeching lower parallel trend line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QIjxPr90/
TJ
You have also taught me Z's like to truncate and it looks very weak in the channel. If we get one, I think it will look very sad.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min futures: right now degree labeling is suggestive of a 5-3-5 down, due to time relationships in the waves. The second "5" is longer in time than the first, so the two waves 'should be' of the same degree or else the second "5" is of one higher degree.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sbSD3WYM/
Then, we don't know the second "5" is done, although it is down to the S1 daily pivot support level. And, if there is upward overlap, it "might" make a 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal.
TJ
Down count would be 1,2,1 now in ii. The time issue may need leeway with the fed.
ReplyDeleteinvalidated
ReplyDeleteI see one impulse up but I'm gonna let the dust settle.
DeleteES 30-min: a lower low than before the press conference has been registered. TJ.
ReplyDeleteIndeed! :)
DeleteI can see why you sit on the sidelines on fed day. My chiropractor is gonna make more than me.
DeleteAll my possible counts blown up by that tempest in a tea-cup. Looking forward to your assessment...
DeleteThe best I could manage was some sort of triangle but degree looks funky...
ReplyDeleteMuch like the 4th wave sneak. This XX may have to sneak under channel to find some fuel for the Z.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we get a channel backtest on TJ's diagonal idea.
see below. TJ.
DeleteES 2-hr: based on measured wave lengths and times of various waves, it is seemingly impossible to count without the (z) wave truncation - which is a fairly common occurrence as BBR reflected on it above. The up wave was 78% - which is within Neely's guidelines.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kmoGIlXO/
TJ.
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ