Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Driving Miss Crazy - 7

FED Spaketh, Dollar Dropeth, Stocks Riseth: based on our intraday comments and count, we were expecting an up day today. We were expecting a potential ((C)) wave, up. We did get more than that. A new local high occurred on the daily chart. And, to be honest, we were not expecting that.


The daily slow stochastic which had lost it's embedded reading yesterday regained it today. Here's what I want to know: even though I was watching it, what allows the FED Chair to pick a Brookings Institute meeting to clarify FED policy to such a degree, and, yet, as the result of FOMC meetings absolutely none of the clarifications occur in those press conferences? In the press conferences, he confuses, he obfuscates. Here he clarifies and in express detail says what he is looking for. Really. Why today? In case you don't get my drift, it feels over & over again like the fix is in. How would it be known that the this FED speech gets as much attention as an FOMC announcement (in terms of access for the public)?

Something really stinks. Do I care what the new announcement precisely is in detail? Very little. Do I care that the FED itself is creating an unbelievable amount of market volatility all by itself? I do. I really do. Some serious money could be caught the wrong way in such a move. Somebody could get royally hurt. As the chart shows, today's move isn't even the largest up move - although to listen to the financial media, you'd think that the Equity Gods had visited Wall Street in person today.

No, as I have said repeatedly, there is nothing doing to the downside until or unless that lower parallel trend line is broken, then back-tested, and then the back-test fails. That just hasn't happened yet.

And I really hope - with all the FED members caught insider trading, against the FED rules, and with the "off calendar" monetary missives - that FED Chair Powell is sleeping well at night. I, for one, have lost all respect for this organization. And for him, in particular. I listen to what they do - because I have to. I listen to what they do because, as a retail trader, they will essentially vaporize my account if they don't. I don't listen because of their wisdom, their finesse, or their skill. They are engaged in market manipulation, and worse, and I simply do not condone that.

Have a good start to your evening,
TraderJoe

18 comments:

  1. Thanks very much. Daily bb and weekly 50 ma together right around 4120-30. I'll take a shot there🤞

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  2. Remember the Bernanke. "Small caps seem to be doing well."

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  3. Hi Tj,
    What is the maximum time we can give ((B)) to unfold or finish?
    This is the 8th week running.
    Yesterday in Fed speech 2% inflation target was the most important objective and to achieve that all measures possible by Fed.
    Going by normal market behaviour the realisation should set in soon.

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  4. ES update

    https://imgur.com/b1TKgKM

    At least my lines are in the right place.

    For all the hopium out there, sure looks to be dying in the channel. I would not be surprised to see a wick above that trendline.

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  5. Nice to see some clean waves at least on a one minute es.

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  6. SPX puts a dent in the downward rail, 4112-4118ish was rejection area before in early September.
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/HnHGq69t/

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  7. Fed, not FED...Federal Reserve Bank=FRB, not FED

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  8. SPY 5-min: there could have been a short-term failure to make 62%. So watch the prior high, and see if the down fractal (red) is taken out lower. It 'might' lead to (at least) an additional wave lower.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/0HMZZKY6/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. https://imgur.com/V2DwFey

      I would not be surprised if that 62% retrace high was 1 of a contracting ending diagonal to alternate with a.

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    2. How about a triangle?
      https://imgur.com/WADXf3C

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    3. Triangle is out, back to the diagonal.

      https://imgur.com/HiCeXXy

      Got to run and pick up kids. Have a great night all.

      Delete
    4. ..yep, 'possible' diagonal now, but not below 406. or possible w-x-y still. Diagonal needs a higher high before a lower low.
      TJ

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    5. SPY has the higher high before the lower low. Diagonal c, or w-x-y.
      TJ

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    6. SPY 5-min: this is the w-x-y formulation. This may conform with degree labeling better than the diagonal.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/FNg1lP1X/

      TJ

      Delete
  9. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete