As we discussed, ES daily prices were previously rejected at the combination of the 100-day SMA at the upper daily Bollinger Band. Today daily prices closed below the 18-day SMA. So, the daily bias is currently down.
Further, (the regular calculation of) the daily slow stochastic sustained the loss of the embedded status for the entire session. Also, we will note that the high of the outside-day-down two bars behind today's bar was not exceeded. Thus, a trap for the bears was not sprung.
Today, we proposed some counts for the first wave down and the second wave up. The first attempt at counting the second wave up correction failed. That was a, triangle-b, c. While we gave clear indication of where the triangle would invalidate, the market was even weaker into the close than the corrective triangle would have indicated as players likely bailed in front of tomorrow's Payroll Employment report. So, two remaining counts for a second wave include a Flat, or a w, x, y depending on whether price goes through the low or not.
We'll see what it looks like tomorrow. Right now, a second wave correction measures much less than 38%, and that would seem a bit too small. But, as I've said before, nothing to the downside will surprise me. Still, it would be nice to see a more proportional second wave. Wave i down - as far as I can tell - ended at this morning's low. And the count for that is in the comments for the prior post.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ES 30-min: the overnight up wave now 'takes more time' than the down wave. A marginal new higher high was made in what could be a ((W))-((X))-((Y)), shown. But still the wave has only retraced just greater than 23.6%.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2s0EF3v6/
So, flexibility & patience needed here. Employment report due at bottom of the hour and the wave could extend up as a triple-zz OR there are two ways it could make new lows: Flat: seems less probable now, or impulse.
TJ
Interesting. Exceeded 90% at the bottom and back to 90% of the top. Algo-fest at the moment. TJ.
Delete..and now slightly over the prior high, and nearer 38%. TJ.
DeleteThose who are long might get a good exit today. Or keep stop-loss of today's lows.
ReplyDeletePlease do not offer such trading or investment advice as that is not the purpose of this blog. You 'should not' offer such advice because 1) you have no idea of how various readers are positioned, or 2) the amount of risk their accounts can handle. This site is not about making "long or short" calls on the market. It is about trying to count the Elliott Wave according to the documented rules and / or guidelines. Again, the purpose of this site does not involve 'signals' of systems to go long or short, etc. Nor is it about who is the better trader, etc. You have done nothing wrong, per se, but please respect the intent of the site. Thanks in advance. TJ.
DeleteSPY 15-min: a > 38% retrace was made, so far. The gap on the left was just closed. The one on the right (close-to-open) has not been filled yet. Must take out the low to do that.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/j0PdsWLP/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: 50% retrace has been attained; that means the retrace could support a 1.618 down wave, should today's low be exceeded lower. ES 5-min - watching to see if an ending diagonal forms in this area. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min chart: watching closely as wave ((1)) has already been overlapped downward. (Chart is behind about 10 min).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/46GtlxW8/
TJ
ES 5-min: removed the wave ((3)) invalidation level. Added the wave ((4)) invalidation level.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Br90IokR/
IF wave ((4)) should invalidate the up wave to ii might just count as multiple zigzags. It would be a lot nicer to get a diagonal.
TJ
ES 5-min: a wave ((4)) has just formally invalidated. The ES 1-hr count is likely multiple zigzags to wave ii. Here is the hourly picture, as best I can tell, so far.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/waMbboNQ/
TJ
Yep! Looks like nested 1,2s...
DeleteBattle for the 18ma is fierce
ReplyDeleteTj
ReplyDeleteWhat could be possible targets of ((c)) down?
Minimum target has already been provided in this post back in September.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2022/09/just-providing-number.html
TJ
A new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ