A Couple of "What-Ifs for the Dow"

An upward minute ((b)) wave has not yet formally invalidated in the Dow Jones Industrials Average but something seems quite squirrelly about it. I'll suggest what's so odd after the first alternate is presented. As an objective Elliott analyst, I can only say that this count (hold your nose) follows the rules, but it sure does not look proportional. For the Dow, if the first count, Alternate A, is the case, then we are making the Cycle V wave up - at least in the Dow - and the "optimistic scenario" of a Primary ((B)) wave up, and Primary ((C)) wave down goes out the window shortly. Here is that alternate on the Weekly chart of the Dow. (The idea for this alternate was shown way back on Jan 21, 2022, at this LINK : see the red line in the bottom half of the price chart).

YM Futures - Weekly - Cycle V?

As this chart suggests, the Dow would have a "running second wave" for Primary ((2)), Circle-2, and the current downward wave sequence would be a Primary ((4))th wave with the Intermediate (C) wave being a failed expanding ending diagonal. Plausible, but then look at how dissimilar waves ((2)) and ((4)) are in time. Too, the Elliott Wave Oscillator would be quite deep although it would be less deep at the end of the (4)th wave. A benefit of this count is that Primary ((4)) would be longer in time than Primary ((3)). Neely suggests such is often the case. Primary ((4)) does not yet overlap Primary ((1)).

In the short term, this count is optimistic because it implies a new high - and quite a substantial one could be made in short order. In the long term, of course, this count is very pessimistic because a five-wave Cycle wave down would immediately follow with devastating consequences.

A less drastic alternate for the Dow follows on what is the Daily chart of the Dow. The support for this count is more Fibonacci based.

YM Futures - Daily - Minor 4 ?

Here is the squirrely factor. IF we are in a minute ((b)) wave for the Dow, then why is the Elliott Wave Oscillator at a new local high? One would think the EWO of a "B" wave would diverge. Rather if you look at the Fibonacci ratios in this Alternate, you can see they are dead on. Wave Minor 3 would be exactly a 1.618 x wave Minor 1, and it's exactly 2.618 times as long in time! That's really quite spectacular. This would mean the current up wave would be Minor 4. As such it has a new invalidation level above Minor 2.

Yes, it is pretty dicey stuff, and it really interjects a lot of uncertainty into the local counts. Perhaps the Dow is doing a little bit on its own, and it may not affect the ES count to a large degree. This is yet another reason to remain flexible patient and calm in the back-and-forth daily swish-swash that is the field day of the algorithms right now.

To make matter a bit more fun (or a bit worse), look at the current up pattern. Yes, many of us have counted the structure as a triple zigzag. We do not know the up wave is concluded. But, as the ES 4-Hr chart below asks, is it just a triple zigzag or is it an expanding diagonal (v > iii > i; iv > ii)?

ES Futures - 4 Hr Close Only - Triple Zigzag or Diagonal

Yes, you can say it, "good grief!" this is not a level of complication that one typically sees counting waves. But let's face it. A lot of this has to do with the outright interest-rate market manipulations of the FED, the way the market is being machine-traded by the "Smart Money" algorithms, and probably the increased popularity of Elliott Wave counting itself. As I had conjectured in 2018, the era of counting of easy impulse waves may be over. The current market is 'chop-city'.

Have a good start to the evening and the weekend.

TraderJoe