Of the four major stock index futures, the DOW futures alone made a new daily high today. This is really curious as it resets the count on the DOW.
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| U.S. Futures Contracts - Daily - DOW new high |
At the moment there is a high degree of uncertainty as to what the correct wave count is. Could it still be the minute ((b)) wave, up? Yes. But even the Dow can not travel much higher, or it will invalidate that count, as well.
The current wave structure is choppy, whippy and seems uncountable. In some of the index futures it may be a triangle beginning to form (election triangle?). Or, it may be a downward diagonal forming, except for the Dow.
There is not much use in micro-counting at the moment as even some of the internal waves make absolutely no sense. One up wave today never even had a 23% retrace until the closing half-hour. Yet, the wave retraced more than 78% of a prior wave. Can't recall when I have ever seen that. It's one facet of the wave structure that makes me ponder if we are not in a triangle. The triangle idea is suspect, too, right now, because the Dow made a new high. But, then again, all counts are suspect at the moment.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ES 1-Hr: largest possible parallel drawn, including fractals. It may take some time to resolve.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/o2aaLeG8/
TJ
Seems like another WXYXX so far.
Deletehttps://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio CBOE put/call ratio at a higher level than march 2020.
ReplyDeleteRoberto, thanks for sharing. How do you interpret that? Is the ratio based on volume or is it based on open interest? What do you think it is signaling?
DeleteAlso, for every buyer, there's a seller. So if it Put Call ratio is high, it means there are lot more Put options being bought, but they're also being sold by someone who must short the market if they go in the money which can add to the volatility. Again, just trying to understand what the signal is.
When the ratio is high I'm more wary of being bearish Also iwm and djt both showing gaps above (as well as AAPL), doesn't mean they get there this week, but a soft CPI would probably explode the market to the upside. I'm personally just waiting till after CPI to decide what to do.
Deleteending diagonal in XLE?
ReplyDeleteHi TJ - Thinking about the b wave triangle as an alternative from Nov 7th post. In the expanding diagonal since the ATH, can wave b of 5 be longer in time than all of wave 4?
ReplyDeleteI think that 'might be' possible as triangles are the one structure that can help resolve degree violations in 'price', due to their shorter (e) wave, they 'might' also be able to resolve degree violations in time, since their very function is 'to move price sideways and take up time'. Still, since that is not certain, I would prefer 'not' to see the degree violation in time, but will suggest that if it occurs it 'might' be acceptable. I would say very, very few cases have been studied in any context, let alone the context of a potential expanding diagonal. TJ.
Deletevery interesting POV on how triangle might be able to extend their function to time degree as well. Thanks. I really like this alternative as a way to chew up the clock through the holidays.
DeleteES daily - still a battle at the 18-day SMA.
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TJ
SPY 5-min: not sure why we need a diagonal here, but the measurements seems to support one.
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TJ
ES 1-Hr: clearly the channel has broken down. "Line in the sand" shown just for reference.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rNMLVym9/
TJ
18ma lost, a bounce to it after cpi would be a gift for bears
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ReplyDeleteTJ