Market still moving sideways until some of the more important fractals on the ES 4-Hr chart, below, are exceeded lower or higher.
It is an interesting question, why, if the market wanted to, it could not take out the highs in the light volume.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
It is really fascinating how many EW analysts are calling the current wave up the middle of a third. Two I follow are of that opinion and I think the bullish posture NYAD informs that opinion. The duration of this sideways action does imply a violent directional break, but I suspect it might be terminal if upward.
ReplyDeleteThey don't know. This is the fallacy of most e-wavers, has been forever, e-waves do not predict market moves. They simply describe the patterns in which they move. There is a huge, tremendous difference between those two things.
DeleteFunny you should say that. One pitiable gentleman who insists that EW is "predictive" has been calling thw entire move up since the 2009 bottom "corrective" and for the last four years telling his readers we are at the top of a b wave. At least Avi and Lara are always quite clear about what they believe the main trend to be,and they are usually correct. Time and degree constraints pose a significant problem for EW as a trading tool.Corrective waves may remain in counter-trend moves for an extended time. I don't know any active traders who rely on EW exclusively.
DeleteI made that mistake some 25 years ago with e-waves. Bought into the cult of Prechter. E-waves to me are useful though, as long as one is not constrained by them. To give an example, the chart here today, if you bent the right side up a bit this would be an impulse wave where w=1, x=2, y=3, x=4, and z=5. It's not an impulse wave due to overlap, I know, but this pattern resembles a failed / crushed impulse wave. Wave 3 of 3 of this move should be the strongest, and if you look at his AO indeed y is the strongest move. Combining that with the declining momentum, to me that is confirming that the next significant move should indeed be down.
DeleteI should throw in, on the NASDAQ the same pattern appears - but it is not crushed with overlaps, it appears as a nearly complete 5-wave.
DeleteStock market performance in Weimar Germany :
ReplyDeletehttps://4.bp.blogspot.com/_tEQToMzfr9U/TONCbGT3N8I/AAAAAAAAATw/LqsVBYN0Xes/s1600/weimar_stocks.png
Here is my two bits on bitcoin. Since wave 3 was a 1.618 extension, I think it should be allowed to escape the channel a bit.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Fqwnlnw
Weekly has Greywaver's Eiffel Tower look.
DeleteMonthly chart even better
DeleteES 30-min: here is the intraday wave counting screen including updated daily pivot points and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uLtZsJda/
The first down (red) fractal back has been exceeded lower. The 18-day SMA is down by the S3 daily pivot support.
TJ
SOX (wkly) - an ominous look -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/br64gX2N/SOX.png
Note: current week "downtick" is still in progress and could fail to finish the week as such.
DeleteThat’s a bad sign for the whole market.
DeleteI made the same mistake with prechter in 2009 and lost a lot of money waiting for a 3rd wave down that never materialized. I recall similar patterns to what is occurring now with the S&P while watching the Dow attempt to overcome 14178 back at that time. The declining momentum had me quite convinced that the Dow would drop. Of course it didn't happen that way and new highs were made.
ReplyDeleteA very short term indicator I use which basically involves deviations from the 200 ma has indicated a long for TQQQ this morning. The jump after the inflation report is an impulsive wave 1 up. This is very short term and has been giving me false signals of late but it is what it is.
I disagree. So far there is a divergence on new highs on NASDAQ Composite. I count this pattern starting around May 12 - so short term. It's very clear 5-wave, wave 3 is the strongest (similar timing to wave y on the S&P here). NAS is well inside trend channels for an upwards contracting triangle on 1 hr chart.
DeleteIt looks to me like todays pop is merely going to create a momentum / price divergence with yesterday's high momentum / price. This is using RSI 6 periods.
Not saying it's going to crash, but a corrective down should be next and last a couple of days at least - I suck at time frames though. That's my take, anyway.
This is what I'm talking about. Note this looks a lot like the chart here. If that upper trend line holds, I think it will be worth 400+ points down :
Deletehttps://imgur.com/Bb8aSdf
Look at the rty, The jump up today looks more like a C on the hourly chart
Delete5% inflation now...
ReplyDelete"Headline consumer prices were up by 5.0% over last year, topping Wall Street's estimates for 4.7% and accelerating from April's 4.2% rise."
Apparel must be going up quick, it was the one thing really holding inflation back in previous releases. Not surprising, as people start to get out more.
Fed's dilemma is coming fast.
True story: I bought a brand new house in Feb. Same house/floorplan today is 18% more expensive, on a smaller lot, in same subdivision, same builder, etc.
I also get emails every day from dealerships wanting to buy my cars.
Anecdotal. Yes. Never seen anything like this in my life though.
When I say wave 1 up that's for TQQQ only which just completed a 3 wave correction on a very minute scale.
ReplyDeleteUpward break from consolidation as expected. If the 3rd wave EW count is correct, we cross 4300 in short, and soon imho.
ReplyDeleteTQQQ just mimics leveraged Nas Composite. The pattern is the same. I think where you and many e-wavers mess up is saying this 5-wave pattern is a '1'. All you know is you have a complete impulse wave up. This is an opportunity to make money as it corrects down. Let the market decide what happens after that.
ReplyDeleteHead-fake. No 3rd wave here imho. Range-bound price action persists. Visit to bottom of channel more likely than break above imho. Massive wick a dead give-away.
ReplyDeleteIt's possible, I've been looking at downside targets also and now that SpX has broken the high it will relax perhaps and pull back substantially. It likely wont happen today however.
DeleteThere is a complete 5 wave down with what looks like a bottom divergence on 1min Nas and Dow. I would call it a very small a of the gap up this morning for now.
ReplyDeleteStocks above 50ma - something to keep an eye on
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/SQPpwybq/above50.png
New numbers yesterday still lean to the printer and it looks like they might be switching the printer to 220 volt.
ReplyDeleteThe shooting star after divergent notch of marginal new SPX high "should" be bearish. Conflating what "should" be and what is in an Era of central bank hegemony is fraught with risk.
ReplyDeletefed is irrelevant
Deletestop blaming them for your trading failures
I know there is inflation, but 24 trillion should get you something.
ReplyDeleteSPX (cfd) 4hr - couple of possibilities
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/QCspfLNT/4hr.png
Quite a reversal but VIX not getting a bid and haven’t broken 4218 SPX.
ReplyDeleteYeh...Volatility acting quite strangely. Either it is confirming the bullish outlook of some, or we are seeing a fairly severe mis-pricing of current market risk 30 days out.
DeleteLooks like a VIX capitulation move. I would interpret that as bearish for the market if SPY fails to respond strongly and positively, which it doesn't appear to be at the moment. No more buyers left to buy?
DeleteSPY (15min) false breakdown below OR, now back within OR, but not yet to midline. False break would suggest a run to top of OR. Watching midline (this is about where RSI 60 level will be reached as well).
ReplyDeleteHave now reached midline (and RSI 60)
DeleteAnyone else tracking the number of insignificant exhaustion gaps on display the last 6 months? I have six so far...
ReplyDeleteGOLD (4hr) has held the 40 level.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; the rise up to 78% retrace looks pretty choppy and corrective. Nothing for certain yet, but 'often' in a barrier triangle (b) and (d) peek their head above the flat line, and close below - reference the daily chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yT6aNKXU/
Reminder: we are still above the 18-day SMA. Bias is still up.
TJ
ES 5-min; lower local low.
DeleteThis market seems to be entering the apex of a triangle. On my chart, S&P only has about 30 points total to move within.
ReplyDeleteThe ADR is low for such nice looking gains thus far.
Ndx looks like an ending diagnol, not sure if true but it lines up with aapl getting up to about 129 before falling out of it's bear flag. I know, wishful thinking
Delete@roberto; already posted a diagonal for NQ futures.
DeleteTJ
SPY (15min) - e.o.d.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/7Zb3JgZ8/spy15.png
Early sector rotation?
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/JhFFQLyz/sectors.png
TLT (dly) observations -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/g2hVXbVW/TLT.png
4hr/daily - OBV non confirmations (to date) -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/jjpLJ03P/both.png
VIX (daily) - observations
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/NGDHfxr4/VIX.png
👍
DeleteThey are becoming scarily predictable. Another "Ramp & Camp" Friday.
ReplyDelete4hr - early look
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/VvyWC9zk/4hr.png
Q’s may be in a running triangle. If so we should see lower TL tagged again
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/cxFBXwaV
Good morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave counting screen along with updated daily pivot points and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mxiExS0L/
I'll be on the road a bit today - will try to check back later.
TJ
Soxl 3x etf (semi-conductors) hasn't joined the breakout scenario yet. Seems like there is not enough money out there to push the whole market up at the same time.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xgcGVQki/
ReplyDeleteSPY (15min) - opening gap filled (gap n crap?). At this point, no new high in cash this morning.
ReplyDeleteAmazing! Neither "Gap & Go" nor "Gap & Crap". Gaps get filled, and range-bound price-action persists. Something's gotta give...and soon... :)
Deleteincorrect
Deletenothing has to happen " soon "
VIX suggesting the crowd expects an upward break...is the herd correct...?!
ReplyDeleteLol @ this freaking thing... the channels are from 1hr chart this is 5 min :
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/OazOtsk
ES Daily - will be interesting to see if there is another daily close below the wave ((iii)) 'barrier'.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY (15min) 3 hrs in -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/FHyJNpN9/spy15.png
Looks to me like 5 down on 15 min chart. That seems to matter little these days. A new low into the close will be quite a departure, and a surprise...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/euX1pyxS/
ReplyDeleteThat's the deal with elliott wave. "If" it was a 5 wave move lower it could be the end of an expanded flat within a larger trend up. The only way to know for sure is to see which gets taken out first - the low before the pattern or the high
Yep. In that case it would likely have completed a small degree 2nd wave and those EW analysts expecting a 3rd up are correct.
DeleteYea, or C up if things are going to start subdividing in 3 wave moves all the time - which would make sense if this is a larger fifth wave of some type.
ReplyDeleteThat is AVI's call. Zig Zags to an interim top. Just happy my ton of short 420 puts will all expire worthless today! Have a great week-end all!
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PQ7NQJ51/
ReplyDeleteIntraday highs being made for soxl
SPY 15min - bumping into btm of OR
ReplyDeleteSPY (15min) e.o.d. -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/6527dfWs/spy15.png
NFLX (wkly) 400?
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/RZSk0pF1/nflx.png
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDelete