Stock futures made a higher high overnight and got within points of the upper Daily Bollinger Band, which kept the swing line temporarily higher. And then they attempted to reverse. By the cash close, the reversal was only counted as three waves.
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| ES Futures - 1 Day - Higher High Day |
The DOW, meanwhile, made a lower low day and may still be in a triangle. There are still ways the market can go higher. There are certainly ways it can start lower. The assumption is the market is on temporary hold pending the results of the FED conference tomorrow.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
SPXUSD - (dly) Decision time -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/CLZzr2Fj/spxusd.png
https://schrts.co/RIyDSqFc
ReplyDeleteNotice how steep the move off 2191 bottom, crazy. We are stretched above the 250 dma and diverging.
There are some very strange things going on in the world of EW charting. I saw one count this evening that has the S & P in a third up at FIVE degrees of trend. I find that absolutely remarkable considering where price is trading in any acceleration channel (near bottom, to say nothing of piercing the top) and also the price action in VIX. I suppose anything is possible in these Frankenstein markets, and we could see a parabolic move higher that swiftly changes all of the above.
ReplyDeleteLumber/Gold (wkly) - risk off
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/c1DQ0PKK/riskoff.png
Good morning. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation) and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kZXz03Sp/
Price has moved considerably sideways overnight.
TJ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nKwJJBAV/
ReplyDeletePossible C wave down in this area, or maybe minimal gains if were headed back to the high and then lower.
So, on SPY 15-min a key question today seems to be which way does this 'apparent' triangle break. I have shown a valid count for an 'up' wave. If the triangle breaks 'down' instead of up, then must consider a larger triangle into tomorrow, with lower lows than today's low or perhaps a diagonal downward with green (C) as (1), down, as it is only three-waves at this point.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nXT2cIyr/
TJ
ES futures, and SPY have busted that original triangle, lower. Looking towards the other options noted.
DeleteTJ
Potential turning point at the bottom of the channel for TQQQ. The move seems a bit aggressive though and there might be something larger going on for this down wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/D1ulJTYs/
FCX (2 day) - Early sign(s)?
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/HWKvQZ2c/fcx.png
ES Daily - fyi only - 18-day SMA, "the line in the sand" is located at 4,213 or thereabouts.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY (15min) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/FKpk46RT/spy15.png
Ordinarily sideways price action in a down-trend presages more downside unless we see a reversal candle like a hammer or bullish engulfing candle. Mr. Market has the nasty habit of late of taking off to the upside out of these sideways patterns with nary a warning, never mind the clueless attributions from the idiot talking heads in the media. Taking the money and running on bear spreads expiring today...just in case... ;)
ReplyDeleteES futures 1- hr (fyi only) have broken yesterday's low of 4,224.50 now.
ReplyDeleteTJ
I am showing two forms for this wave in the ES futures ((1)) - ((5)), and a-b-c-x because wave ((4)) looks 'awfully long in time'. It could be either at the moment.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v5pr2
TJ
Reminder: the FOMC policy decision is due out at the top of the hour. And this is followed later by the Chair's press conference.
DeleteIFF the ((E)) wave of the triangle is exceeded higher, then it tends to rule out the a-b-c-x count.
TJ
..ES 1-Hr .. now prioe has taken out the Sun/Mon low of 4,222, with the 18-day SMA at 4,213.
DeleteTJ
ES hits 4,200 at 14:00 EDT
ReplyDeleteLooks to me like we re-vist the 4200 area...at the least...
ReplyDeleteSPY 15min H&S target now well exceeded after 45min pause/bounce (prior to Fed).
ReplyDeleteRare intra-day gap higher in VIX...let's see if bulls can close it!
ReplyDeleteSPY (15min) - update
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/gcQStQHW/spy15.png
Move down has reached 2.618.
Delete...and nice hammer on hourly...
DeleteDOW futures (fyi only) .. just pointing out the DOW's 'potential' triangle now has a decent 62% retrace downwards. Certainly could go further. This is sort of the 'minimum' for a triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v5qor
TJ
CNBC - Chair Powell says (paraphrase) "this was the meeting that is the 'meeting for thinking about thinking about raising rates, and it is now time to retire that terminology"
ReplyDeleteTJ
haha nice
DeleteWhat a clown! The dirty little secret is that they ultimately have little choice but to follow the market when it comes to interest rates, and I think they are going higher.
ReplyDelete:) I think so..Gl all
DeleteAnother successful defense of 4200 at 4201.80...
ReplyDeleteLook at the 5 and 10 year yield spiking up.
ReplyDelete4240 ish kiss before the selloff begins?
ReplyDeleteThat would synchronize with the Nasdaq - An expanding diagonal down type of setup
DeleteI would say..Powell did said everything he could to convince investors..Feds got your back..two mandates..Low unemployment..heard much about that..Stable prices..ahh not so much... oh well.. great night all
ReplyDeleteSPY (15min) e.o.d. -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/YCz36ffc/spy15.png
Gold crash
ReplyDeleteJust like yesterday's news, economic news continue to point to slowdown and higher inflation at the same time.
ReplyDeleteMisses on building permits and new house starts - below forecast by 50-60K on both - and much higher import price index than expected.
8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) May 1.68 million 1.73 million 1.73 million
8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) May 1.57 million 1.63 million 1.52 million
8:30 am Import price index May 1.1% 0.7% 0.8%