The ES futures backed further down from the high in fear of the FOMC report today. By noon, the market was already breaking hourly fractal lows, and we called them out as they occurred. Then, after the statement was released, the ES futures dropped from the S1 daily pivot point to through the S2 daily pivot point and on down to break the S3 daily pivot. At 4,190 there was a 'stick save' that prevented the market from making five-waves-down, and prices rebounded strongly to the intraday 18-period SMA. The drop was enough to cause the daily slow stochastic to lose the 80 level, and thereby lose its embedded status.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Triangle? |
In the process, prices first pierced the 18-day SMA lower, then traded above it, then settled just about on it. The move and its overlaps - plus the whippy price action - is enough to at least suggest the minuet (c) wave down of the potential barrier triangle is underway.
The DOW cash index got down far enough today to have it's (c) wave register a nicely proportional 62% retrace within a triangle. It can go lower towards 78% if it wishes.
On the above chart, if prices wish to continue lower, they certainly could head towards the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
bitcoin update, have not touched the chart in days.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/yitZlcg
DXY (dly) update to Monday's post -
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LoL, was just gonna ask.
DeleteNdx ending diagnol looks textbook, a fall from here should be quite dramatic. Btc had a similar structure before it's meltdown.
ReplyDeleteVIX &VXN breaking DT lines.
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/rCtvMSIQ
Stocks above 50ma - update
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/pLqBwzVM/stocks-above.png
An aside - CRB/Gold (wkly) - A long road that has no turn?
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/26fP1XWb/crbgold.png
Im thinking the recent high in gold was an X wave to reset the corrective channel. Sure
ReplyDeletelooked funky off the bottom for an impulse.
Good morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots (classic calculation) and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/z3h5kJtn/
fyi only ..the 18-day SMA remains around 4,213, near the daily pivot point PP of 4,215.
TJ
Short term long signal for TQQQ
ReplyDelete@Sd .. please don't post specific trading signals on this site. This is a 'wave counting site'. For example, what is 'short term' to you may be undefined to others.
DeleteTJ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EqJmAqp5/ TQQQ
ReplyDeleteNew low DJIA, SPX nyet..
ReplyDelete$TRANS have been weak for awhile..Gl all
DeleteDXY H&S target exceeded.
ReplyDelete(inverted)
DeleteNew all time high for the Nasdaq, That was fast - the market doesn't have much patience for threats to the uptrend.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pKDXMsBz/
ReplyDeleteLooks like a good place for an expanded flat after some more upside
ES Hourly - here is a take on the down waves, so far. It is whippy enough to be a triangle 'x' wave, but there is a way for it to devolve into a flat, running flat or expanded flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8vTdew8T/
TJ
Nasdaq has hit 1.236 the length of A
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8NTQjiav/
ES 60-min; more downward overlap = triangle because 'a little more' likely.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v64uz
TJ
Inter-market divergences are now more extreme than I have ever witnessed. Something big is afoot. Watching the curious defense of 4200 with great interest for clues as to what...
ReplyDeleteAgree, perhaps the Nasdaq cooling off now and money will flow to the S&P & Dow
Deleteround numbers dont matter
Deletestop wasting time with this
I agree 99 percent
DeleteI agree 4,200 percent; perhaps you were not around in 2,000 for these,
Deleteand they pale by comparison when you add the NDX to the same chart. Try it.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jiw0wxtH/
TJ
Es 60-min triangle might be breaking down. That's OK. 'x' can be a running flat or even a downward pointing 'barrier' triangle. Watch the lows.
ReplyDeleteTJ
The lows of 4,180 held. Now another whippy up wave. It 'can' be wave ((E)), and there are still ways it can take more time or be more complex. Let's see if the recent hourly low can form a fractal in another hour or so.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/v65tt
TJ
So jobs report... more people apply for first time unemployment than last week.
ReplyDeleteMore data points that show the negative reports that started with the big jobs miss in April and continued with high inflation, are not a blip.
So, 2023 is likely the latest they raise rates. 7/18 say 2022.
I've always thought, the Fed will kill the job market before they kill the dollar.
AAPL, TSLA, NFLX saving the NASDAQ - for now.
ReplyDeleteContinued sector rotation - update
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Everybody but Greywaver thought the dollar was dead.
ReplyDeletehttps://finviz.com/futures.ashx
When bubbles pop, cash becomes valuable.
DeleteThe rumors of its death had been greatly exaggerated, lol. (for now) :o) 👍
DeleteDXY (wkly) One possibility -
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huh ? Nov of last year. Five down as second chart in this post.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/11/
And, later I stated the correction might be a 'flat' correction as we were 90% to the lows.
TJ
Within still a 'potential' triangle, the A,B,C & D legs are now valid fractals. Waiting to find out about E.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v6704
TJ
..prior C wave high just gave way.
DeleteET, I do remembered that now.
ReplyDeleteMy bad. Sometimes even a few days for my memory is asking a lot.
There were/are a number of "pundits" calling for the demise of the $$$. I think the remarks would be directed to them. It is nice to see how a dash of RSI/Macd/Sto could arrive at the same conclusion in Dec '20 as EW. Even the possible DB ties in with a flat. Shows how nicely two different methodologies can work together (they dont have to be mutually exclusive). That's how I view them anyway. :o)
Delete..no worries.
DeleteES 60-min: Possible that downward overlap would just move the C wave, one wave to the right. More of a triangle might complete in the overnight.
ReplyDeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ