Every Which Way But Loose

If you were looking for big breakouts today, they didn't happen. Both the ES and the SPX initially made marginal higher highs. In fact, the SPX is now pretty darn close to that prior (b) wave if the pattern is still the barrier triangle. But, the rest of the day was spend largely making 78% retrace waves, until near the close, where, so far a double-bottom is holding for the moment.

In terms of the hourly wave count upward, we are waiting on resolution of the pattern below to determine if there were five-waves-up or three-waves-up.

ES Futures - Hourly - Monitoring

We are monitoring the hourly fractals to see which breaks first. Actually, the first down (red) fractal was broken near the close, but the second down (red) fractal back is still holding. If that one gives way, then it might lead to overlap which would provide a warning that an impulse wave might not be made.

It's summer. People have vacations, fun & being outdoors on their minds, and volume fell off a bit today. The RSI and MACD aren't much help. While they have both broken uptrending lines from their recent lows price is not responding yet. So, we need to see what the overnight and tomorrow brings. 

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe