Some indexes eeked out marginal new highs today. The DOW was not one of them (yet). While there could be new higher highs eventually, today was the first day we saw a real divergence between the S&P500 and the $NYAD, the NYSE Advance-Decline line. The chart is below.
 |
| NYSE Adv/Dec - Versus SPX - Daily Divergence |
Again, we think it is likely we will experience some of this divergence as part of the topping process. We could not see any divergence before - we can now. As for the shorter term, we are still looking for a reasonably-sized correction following the rise from 21 June. By reasonable, we mean 38% or greater. So far, that hasn't happened, in full, but it may have started today or may start tonight.
During the first part of the session, the ES futures made only three-waves-down - which we showed in the comments for the prior post. With only the three-waves down, prices exceeded the high again - either as the end of wave v of (i), or as a 'b' wave, with wave v having ended last week.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Joe, more importantly the $ADLINENYC , which is only common stocks is diverging for first time.
ReplyDelete38% decline =correction or are you referencing to fib?
ReplyDeletefib from 21Jun low to the high (minimum).
DeleteTJ
With ADline divergence is less time more important? Can the divergence continue like rsi. I haven't studied ADline.
ReplyDeleteThere have been times when it has diverged for a couple of months. But the data is easy to plot for free, and you should see how it acts around the 2000 top, and the 2007 top.
DeleteTJ
SPY 5-min; busting the triangle lower might prove interesting.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ubjETh7x/
TJ
SPY 5-min; opening gap has been filled below triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VbWdEEYN/
TJ
SPY 5-min; so far there are three-waves down; with c/iii just shy of equality with a/i. Watch for either a lower low or upward overlap. A lower low before overlap would be five waves down with an extended first wave. Not sure how it will go yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2IkLG9u4/
TJ
..now there is upward overlap. 50-50 odds of higher/lower now.
DeleteTJ
SPXUSDcfd - 5min -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/ZqrrxkNQ/cfd5.png
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete